Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Lobito Refinery Financing Signals Limits to Diversification

What happened: Angola is again exploring Chinese financing for the $4.8bn Lobito refinery, with Sonangol confirming plans to seek funding from Beijing after earlier attempts to raise equity and tap international debt markets fell short. The move comes despite previous signals that the government would self-finance the project and reduce reliance on Chinese capital.

Why it matters: The decision highlights Angola’s limited success in diversifying its financing base for large-scale infrastructure. While the Lourenço administration has sought to attract Western and regional partners, persistent concerns over risk, payment reliability and execution have constrained participation, leaving China and a small group of entrenched players as the only viable sources of capital at scale.

What happens next: This does not signal a strategic pivot back to China, but rather highlights structural constraints that continue to shape Angola’s investment landscape. Efforts to broaden partnerships will persist, but remain incremental, with China retaining a central role in financing major projects as the government balances reform ambitions against fiscal and market realities.

Cameroon: VP Revival Offers Clarity, but No Cure for Division

What happened: Cameroon’s parliament approved an amended constitution on 4 April, reintroducing the role of vice president. The change allows a sitting VP to automatically succeed President Paul Biya if he dies in office, resigns or is declared incapacitated, serving out the remainder of the seven-year term after an overwhelmingly approved parliamentary vote.

Why it matters: The reform reduces immediate uncertainty around succession by avoiding a rapid electoral transition, offering investors clearer expectations on contract continuity and policy direction. However, because the vice president is appointed and dismissible at will, elite competition will persist, while longstanding tensions between Anglophone and Francophone communities remain unaddressed by the changes.

What happens next: Focus now shifts to Biya’s vice presidential appointment, which will signal his succession approach. A loyal but less powerful figure is more likely than a dominant contender, given limits on interim presidents contesting elections. Rivalries within the elite are set to intensify, while the Anglophone crisis continues to pose security and stability risks.

Colombia: Assault on Central Bank Independence Threatens Macro Stability

What happened: Colombia’s finance minister Germán Ávila abruptly walked out of a central bank board meeting on 31 March after directors approved a 100 basis point rate hike, prompting President Gustavo Petro to declare the government was “breaking relations” with the bank. The move marks an unprecedented public rupture between the executive and monetary authority.

Why it matters: The episode signals an aggressive political strategy ahead of elections, with the government positioning the central bank as responsible for weak growth. For investors, the clash raises concerns about institutional stability, as attempts to challenge central bank independence risk undermining macroeconomic credibility, increasing currency volatility and deterring long-term capital inflows.

What happens next: Government allies will push to curb the central bank’s autonomy through constitutional reform, though Congress is expected to block such efforts. Even without structural change, continued political confrontation is likely to drive peso weakness, disrupt policy coordination and freeze foreign investment as markets price in heightened institutional and policy risk.

Greece: The Subsidy Fraud Scandal That Won’t Go Away

What happened: A second dossier from the European Public Prosecutor’s Office expanded the OPEKEPE subsidy fraud investigation, naming 11 MPs, two ministers and several former officials. The revelations, including wiretapped conversations, triggered a targeted cabinet reshuffle removing three ministers, with further procedural steps expected as additional files emerge.

Why it matters: The scandal has evolved into a systemic challenge, with evidence suggesting routine political interference in subsidy allocation. This undermines New Democracy’s governance narrative and complicates efforts to contain the fallout, particularly as daily leaks sustain media pressure.

What happens next: The government is likely to pursue controlled damage limitation, but further EPPO dossiers, alongside parallel pressures such as the Tempe trial and renewed scrutiny of surveillance practices, will continue to strain political stability. While Mitsotakis retains the initiative, election timing risks have widened and policy bandwidth is likely to remain constrained.

Mexico: Finance Ministry Projects Optimistic Economic Growth

What happened: Mexico’s Finance Ministry submitted its Economic Pre-Criteria 2027 to Congress, projecting GDP growth of 1.8–2.8% in 2026 and 1.9–2.9% in 2027, with inflation converging to 3%. The outlook is notably more optimistic than forecasts from the IMF, OECD and Banxico, signaling the administration’s preferred macroeconomic trajectory.

Why it matters: These projections form the backbone of the 2027 budget, shaping revenue expectations, Pemex support, infrastructure spending and assumptions around private investment. However, the gap with consensus forecasts raises credibility concerns, particularly as business confidence remains weak and fiscal pressures from debt servicing, pensions and social transfers continue to build.

What happens next: Attention now turns to whether the government can translate its investment-led growth narrative into execution. The full budget in September will clarify fiscal priorities, but near-term signals will come from project approvals under new infrastructure frameworks and the extent to which private capital is mobilized despite policy uncertainty.

Russia: Drone Strikes Reshape Russian Export Risk Outlook

What happened: Ukrainian drone strikes on 5 April targeted Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub, disrupting nearby infrastructure and triggering Russian claims that Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities were damaged. Kazakhstan quickly denied any impact on CPC flows, with evidence instead pointing to strikes on Transneft infrastructure and nearby military sites rather than Kazakh-linked export assets.

Why it matters: Repeated attacks on Baltic and Black Sea export chokepoints are constraining Russia’s ability to ship crude and refined products, while raising geopolitical risk for CPC-linked flows relied on by Western investors. Even when infrastructure remains intact, conflicting narratives and false claims are increasing market volatility and exposing the fragility of Russia’s export system.

What happens next: Sustained Ukrainian pressure on maritime bottlenecks could force Russia to cut production if exports cannot be rerouted, particularly given limited alternative capacity. At the same time, Moscow is likely to intensify blame-shifting and false-flag narratives, increasing uncertainty around CPC operations and elevating political risk for investors exposed to regional export infrastructure.

South Korea: CHPS Outlook Update: Focusing on Domestic Green Hydrogen

What happened: South Korea is redesigning its hydrogen power market to prioritize domestically produced clean hydrogen, effectively restricting participation in auctions to projects meeting strict lifecycle emissions standards. This shift sidelines LNG-derived gray hydrogen and signals a move away from transitional fuels, as the government accelerates efforts to build a renewables-based hydrogen ecosystem.

Why it matters: The policy marks a structural pivot from scaling the hydrogen market to enforcing decarbonization, with green hydrogen positioned as the dominant pathway. While coherent from a climate perspective, the approach raises near-term challenges given high production costs and limited domestic supply, creating tension between policy ambition and industrial readiness.

What happens next: The market is set to become smaller and more selective, with capital concentrating on domestic green hydrogen production, electrolysis and integrated renewable systems. LNG-linked players will face pressure to pivot toward hydrogen-compatible infrastructure, while tighter criteria and reduced auction volumes drive consolidation around a limited pool of qualified projects.

United States: Honda’s EV Retreat Signals Outlook for US Electrification

What happened: Honda cancelled three planned EV models for North America on 12 March, taking a $15.7bn loss and marking its first move into the red. The decision reflects weakening EV demand in the US following subsidy rollbacks, alongside broader concerns about cost competitiveness and the durability of policy-driven adoption.

Why it matters: The move challenges assumptions of an inevitable, rapid shift to electrification across mobility and energy systems. EV uptake remains highly sensitive to subsidies, financing conditions and power availability, while rising electricity demand from data centers and broader load growth is tightening supply and increasing pressure on grid reliability and pricing.

What happens next: Expect a more uneven transition, with investors repositioning around “electron scarcity” rather than abundance. Capital will increasingly favour reliable, scalable power sources and hybrid solutions, while EV growth slows and becomes more dependent on supportive policy, cost reductions and improvements in underlying electricity supply infrastructure.

Vietnam: New Leadership Takes Shape as Vietnam Bets on Technocrats & Concentrated Power

What happened: Vietnam’s National Assembly consolidated power on 7 April, appointing To Lam as both Communist Party General Secretary and President, while confirming former central banker Le Minh Hung as prime minister. The unanimous votes formalize the most significant leadership restructuring since Doi Moi, ending decades of deliberately fragmented authority across the system.

Why it matters: Fewer veto points and a more technocratic cabinet should accelerate decision-making, particularly across energy and infrastructure, giving investors clearer execution pathways. However, concentrating authority around one leader increases policy risk, reduces institutional checks, and raises exposure to shifts in judgment, with limited buffers if strategic direction changes or implementation falters.

What happens next: Attention turns to whether the leadership converts political consolidation into bankable progress on LNG, grid expansion and upstream reform. Faster approvals are likely, but outcomes will depend on project prioritization within the command structure, with advantages accruing to aligned actors as centralization increasingly reshapes how decisions are made and enforced.

Yemen: The Houthis Finally Entered the Iran Conflict; They Don’t Seem Happy About It

What happened: Yemen’s Houthi movement entered the regional Iran conflict on 28 March with a series of missile attacks targeting Israel, marking a calibrated escalation after weeks of signalling intent. While the strikes caused limited damage, they formalize the group’s involvement and raise the stakes across key regional energy and shipping corridors.

Why it matters: The development heightens risk around critical chokepoints, particularly the Bab al-Mandab Strait and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export route via Yanbu. Although attacks are currently limited to Israel, the Houthis retain the capability to disrupt maritime flows, creating ongoing uncertainty for oil shipments rerouted from the Gulf amid Hormuz-related disruptions.

What happens next: The group is likely to proceed cautiously, conditioning further escalation on US, Israeli or Gulf actions. Limited Red Sea disruptions may resume if those thresholds are crossed, but a direct attack on Saudi infrastructure remains unlikely unless Riyadh openly joins the conflict, as the Houthis seek to preserve their fragile détente with the Kingdom.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

FBI Director Kash Patel praised Iraqi Kurdistan Supreme Council president Faiq Zaidan for his help in retrieving a kidnapped US journalist, Shelly Kittleson. Patel referred to Faiq's team as America's 'partners'.

It took Zaidan and his team under a week to recover Kittleson, compared to the nearly three years for Mohammed Shia al Sudani to get the Russian-Israeli researcher Liz Tsurkov back from the militias after she was kidnapped in early 2023.

This is manna from heaven for Faiq, who desperately wants a drama-free trip to the US and friendship with the administration.

The development also gives Faiq a huge boost in political capital and he is now more likely to either pick Iraq's next prime minister or have a lot of influence over him.

It is also good news for Western investors. Faiq sees foreign investors as natural allies in his quest for power. It’s also good news for the Kurdistan Region, where Faiq has been particularly supportive.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.