Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week’s banner image shows President Xi Jinping during his late-March visit to Huaneng in Hebei’s Xiong’an New Area, a carefully staged inspection that reinforces Beijing’s current emphasis on energy security, grid stability and the acceleration of a “modern energy system.”

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: Nuclear Signals Support Future Gas Exports

What happened: The government plans to include nuclear energy in its future power mix amid expectations of sharp increases in electricity demand.

Why it matters: Nuclear power could free additional domestic gas for export to Europe and support upstream expansion and Southern Gas Corridor utilization through the 2030s.

What happens next: Investors should watch for formal program decisions, vendor selection signals and feasibility studies that indicate whether nuclear shifts from a strategic option to a funded project pathway.

Brazil: Mello to Align NOC's Strategy with Lula's Agenda

What happened: Petrobras shareholders elected Guilherme de Mello as the president of the board amid a reshuffle.

What does it mean: Mello, a close associate of former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and architect of the administration’s economic policies, will bridge the gap between Petrobras and President Lula’s inner circle during the campaign season.

What happens next: Mello will work closely with Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard to keep the NOC’s wholesale fuel pricing aligned with Lula's electoral imperatives.

China: A Friend in Need is a Friend Indeed

What happened: China’s leaders are highlighting their willingness to play a stabilizing role in the Gulf and to support Asian countries in overcoming their energy security struggles.

Why it matters: Beijing is starting to use its influence and energy advantage in both oil products and low-carbon technologies as both a tool of soft power and a source of leverage.

What happens next: China is implicitly trading selective oil product exports for deepening trade in cleantech and access to minerals.

China: Building a New Energy System

What happened: China’s top leaders are emphasizing that energy security lies in tech innovation and accelerating the low-carbon energy transition during domestic site visits and press appearances.

Why it matters: Mitigating fossil fuel supply insecurity has been a policy priority for almost three decades; now, the focus is on power market reform. Electrification and renewable integration are at the heart of China’s energy security challenges going forward.

What happens next: The government is looking to introduce market mechanisms to reduce curtailment, but implementation is slow and uneven. Given the urgency to act, local governments could opt for administrative quick fixes, leading to regulatory uncertainty and hidden costs.

Greece: Turkish Rhetoric Sharpens Regional Tensions Amid Iran Conflict

What happened: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly designated the Greece-Cyprus-Israel trilateral as a “threat priority” and accused Athens of pursuing military cooperation with Israel that no other European state would agree to.

Why it matters: Fidan’s statements aim to signal to Washington that the trilateral framework complicates US regional objectives. It also plays to a domestic Greek audience: opposition parties have grown openly skeptical of the alliance, warning that Athens risks being dragged into a conflict not of its choosing.

What happens next: Athens will hold its institutional line while quietly monitoring whether Ankara backs words with naval action. The critical test is whether Turkish harassment resumes along the GSI cable route or the offshore hydrocarbon concessions — either would confirm a deliberate escalation rather than rhetorical posturing.

Guyana: PSA Critics Have Little Power to do Damage

What happened: US Ambassador Nicole Theriot reiterated US support for Guyana in an interview and warned the government against renegotiating the Stabroek PSA.

Why it matters: Opposition parties and civil society activists responded by criticizing Theriot and calling on the government to renegotiate the contract.

What happens next: As the PSA's critics wield little power, we expect the PPP to continue rolling out the red carpet for foreign investment, though investors should keep opposition messaging in mind when rolling out communications and community engagement strategies.

Iraq: The PM Office Director Gets Noticed for the Big Position

What happened: The PM Office Director, Ihsan al-Awadi, is emerging as a PM candidate as the Shi'a Coordination Framework (SCF) continues to deliberate who will fill the post.

Why it matters: Awadi is a weak political survivor: He would come in as a result of militia support and not oppose their objectives, and he may be a surrogate for Sudani.

What happens next: If appointed, Awadi would be poorly equipped to win Western support and might even push for more Chinese and Russian investment.

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan Faces Renewed Druzhba Transit Export Risks

What happened: Russia is expected to halt Kazakh oil transit to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline from May 2026, prompting Kazakhstan to prepare for rerouting exports while awaiting formal confirmation from Moscow.

Why it matters: The halt highlights continued dependence on Russian transit infrastructure, reinforcing logistics risk for investors despite Kazakhstan’s current ability to redirect flows through CPC and China without reducing production.

What happens next: Investors should watch whether rerouting through CPC and alternative corridors stabilizes exports or repeated disruptions accelerate Kazakhstan’s shift toward Caspian and Asian routes at an increasing pace.

Mexico: US Tariffs Here to Stay

What happened: President Claudia Sheinbaum hosted USTR Jamieson Greer at the National Palace alongside members of her economic cabinet for a second round of bilateral pre-negotiation talks ahead of the USMCA review set for July.

Why it matters: Greer said that tariffs are a permanent feature of US trade policy, meaning the USMCA review will not return North America to the pre-2025 trade environment. The negotiation has shifted to how high tariffs will be and Washington’s demands in exchange for relief.

What happens next: Technical discussions will continue through the remainder of April. The formal bilateral negotiating round begins the week of 25 May in Mexico City. Mexico will continue to try to lock in sectoral relief early, but we believe any easing, if it comes, will likely be tied to conditions, including tighter rules of origin.

Nigeria: Tax Taiwo Takes the Top Job as Tinubu Sacks Old Ally

What happened: Bola Ahmed Tinubu named Taiwo Oyedele finance minister and coordinating minister of the economy after sacking his longstanding political ally, Wale Edun.

Why it matters: Edun’s ouster shows the president’s impatience following a period of instability in the finance ministry leadership, which has unsettled investors and raised questions about the success of the government's revenue-raising initiatives.

What happens next: Edun’s exit should bring more stability to the finance ministry, and we expect tighter tax enforcement under Oyedele, while Special Advisor on Energy Olu Verheijen leads IEC engagement.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed on the sidelines of the Regional Environmental Summit in Astana that transit of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Atyrau-Samara route and the Druzhba pipeline would be suspended starting from 1 May.

Akkenzhenov said that unofficial sources said there was not enough capacity to handle the flows. This is likely a cover for repairs linked to recent drone attacks on Russian infrastructure.

But Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan would shift the affected volumes to alternative routes, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system and deliveries to China. At 3mn tpy, Druzhba shipments are a small fraction of Kazakhstan’s annual 80mn tpy production.

Nonetheless, Kazakh crude covers between 20-30% of demand at Germany’s Schwedt refinery, highlighting the route’s regional importance.

This episode again highlights Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian oil infrastructure for exports. This development highlights Akkenzhenov's role as a crisis manager focused on continuity of exports and avoiding tensions with Russia.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.