Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image is of Mexican lawmaker Roberto Velasco, whose promotion to Minister of Foreign Affairs features in the Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the page.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: NOC Stays Central as Upstream Sector Fragments

What happened: Sonangol exercised its preemption rights to join the sale of Etu Energias’s stakes in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A, forcing a restructuring of the deal with Afentra and Maurel & Prom. The revised structure leaves Sonangol as operator and a key partner, reducing the stakes of incoming investors while preserving its control over mature producing assets.

Why it matters: The move reflects Sonangol’s strategy to remain central as Angola’s upstream sector becomes more fragmented, with majors exiting and independents expanding. By partnering rather than fully acquiring, Sonangol can maintain influence while managing balance sheet constraints, securing steady cash flow and aligning with the government’s priority of sustaining production and revenues.

What happens next: Further interventions are likely as asset sales continue, particularly where Sonangol holds operational leverage. New entrants will still access opportunities, but increasingly within partnership structures shaped by state interests. Sonangol will remain critical to fiscal stability and is unlikely to face meaningful privatization despite earlier IPO discussions.

Azerbaijan: Russian Meddling in Armenian Elections May Impact Peace, Corridor Talks

What happened: Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held tense talks in Moscow ahead of the 7 June elections, exposing friction over Armenia’s EU drift and reduced reliance on Russia. Kremlin-linked messaging and media activity intensified alongside the meeting, amplifying criticism of Pashinyan and signalling a willingness to shape the electoral environment.

Why it matters: For investors in Azerbaijan, the exchange increases the risk of Russian interference affecting Armenia’s political trajectory and the normalization process. Heightened pressure could slow border demarcation and delay connectivity projects, including transport corridors critical to regional energy flows. A more contested environment in Yerevan raises implementation risk across ongoing negotiations.

What happens next: Watch for the scale of Russian pressure before the vote, including economic signals and hybrid activity, and whether Pashinyan retains a workable majority. Continuity would support gradual progress on demarcation and corridors, while a weaker or coalition government could delay negotiations and increase the risk of localized instability along the border.

China: Iran War Tests China’s Active Neutrality in the Middle East

What happened: Attacks on Kuwait’s Mubarak al-Kabir port have damaged infrastructure linked to Chinese Belt and Road investments, directly affecting projects tied to major state-owned firms. The strikes add to a growing list of incidents hitting Chinese-linked assets across the region, including energy infrastructure critical to Beijing’s supply chains and commercial footprint.

Why it matters: China’s exposure is both operational and financial, with more than $40bn invested across Middle Eastern energy and infrastructure. Continued damage to these assets raises questions about whether Beijing can maintain its current “active neutrality” stance, particularly as disruptions begin to affect offtake agreements, insurance costs and the viability of Chinese-backed projects across multiple markets.

What happens next: In the near term, Beijing is likely to continue avoiding direct intervention while engaging quietly through diplomatic channels. Indicators of a potential change to this stance would include Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveling to the region, more assertive public messaging and updated consular guidance to Chinese nationals. Without these signals, China will prioritise risk management over mediation.

Equatorial Guinea: Melania Trump Engages First Lady as Part of US Charm Offensive

What happened: Constancia Mangue de Obiang attended a high-profile summit hosted by Melania Trump at the US State Department and the White House, alongside dozens of other first ladies. Her inclusion reflects a deliberate US effort to engage Equatorial Guinea at a senior political level, building on recent outreach to Vice President Teodorin Obiang.

Why it matters: Her presence signals a broader US charm offensive toward Equatorial Guinea, prioritising strategic alignment over governance concerns. As Constancia’s influence grows alongside her son’s expected succession, engagement with her carries increasing weight. Strengthening ties could tilt the country further toward Washington, creating openings for US investors, particularly in technology and security-linked sectors.

What happens next: If Constancia reciprocates with a visit invitation, Melania Trump could become the first US First Lady to visit Equatorial Guinea. That would deepen bilateral engagement and reinforce political alignment. Increased cooperation is likely to translate into commercial opportunities, though concentrated within regime-linked structures controlling key sectors such as IT and emerging technologies.

Greece: Vertical Corridor Gets a Commercial Lifeline

What happened: The European Commission and five TSOs agreed to cut Vertical Corridor transit tariffs by up to 37% and introduce longer-term capacity products, addressing structural issues behind four failed auctions. The deal places earlier discount efforts on firm legal footing and aims to improve commercial viability ahead of a new auction cycle starting in July.

Why it matters: US pressure at CERAWeek, reinforced by Greek lobbying in Houston, was instrumental in securing Commission backing and overcoming resistance from some EU member states. The agreement reflects a political push to advance non-Russian gas routes, despite lingering divisions within Europe over long-term reliance on US LNG and competing supply options.

What happens next: The first real test comes with the July auction. While the tariff fix improves competitiveness, it is unlikely to be sufficient on its own. Long-term LNG purchase agreements from Eastern European buyers remain critical. Without firm demand commitments, financing for expansion projects and sustained corridor utilisation will remain uncertain.

Iran: Hardliners’ Rise Reinforces Strategic Focus on Continued Economic, Military Retaliation

What happened: US signalling ahead of escalation US President Donald Trump is issuing contradictory statements, alternating between suggesting negotiations and threatening expanded strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including a deadline tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The messaging likely reflects either preparation for a diplomatic off-ramp or an attempt to confuse Iranian decision-makers ahead of potential escalation, including ground operations.

Why it matters: Iranian leadership remains unified around continued resistance, with key decision-makers showing a high tolerance for sustained military and civilian losses. Intensified attacks on civilian and industrial targets are not shifting internal calculations and are instead reinforcing hardline views that the conflict is existential. This reduces the likelihood of near-term negotiations or compromise despite external pressure.

What happens next: No major change in Iran’s posture is expected over the next two weeks. Any US ground invasion would likely entrench resistance rather than weaken it, with Iranian commanders prepared to absorb losses while imposing costs through asymmetric tactics. Escalation risks therefore remain high, particularly if Washington moves beyond air and missile operations.

Israel: In Israel’s Turbulent Politics, Regional Security is a Rare Settled Issue

What happened: The war with Iran is the latest - and likely not the last - manifestation of Israel’s more aggressive security doctrine following the 7 October attacks, with preemptive and sustained military action now commanding broad political and public consensus. The conflict is viewed domestically as one front in a wider campaign against Iran and its regional network, rather than a discrete or time-limited war.

Why it matters: This change means Israel sees the confrontation as part of a prolonged existential struggle, not contingent on electoral cycles or individual leadership. Political divisions persist, but there is little disagreement on the strategic objective of degrading Iran and its proxies. For investors, this signals a stable but more aggressive regional posture, with sustained military activity shaping the operating environment.

What happens next: Looking ahead, Israeli politics are unlikely to materially alter this trajectory. Whether the 2026 election produces new leadership or a fragmented outcome, security and energy policy will remain aligned around continued confrontation and post-war expansion. Developments in upstream gas and regional export ambitions will proceed within this framework, contingent on improved security conditions.

Nigeria: CBN Relaxes Repatriation Rules for IECs

What happened: The Central Bank of Nigeria relaxed foreign-exchange repatriation rules for international energy companies, removing 2024 requirements that forced firms to retain a portion of earnings domestically. This restores immediate access to forex through authorised banks, reversing a policy that had constrained operations and conflicted with broader government efforts to attract investment into the energy sector.

Why it matters: The move aligns monetary policy with President Tinubu’s pro-investment agenda and improves Nigeria’s competitiveness against peer markets. Easing repatriation constraints addresses a key investor concern and could unlock capital flows, particularly in upstream oil and gas. It also signals greater policy coherence after a period where restrictive forex measures undermined reform credibility.

What happens next: The policy change may accelerate final investment decisions ahead of next year’s election, particularly alongside planned fiscal incentives. However, investors should remain cautious. Inflation risks linked to external shocks, high public debt and structural constraints on production could pressure the naira and test the sustainability of looser forex controls if macro conditions deteriorate.

Russia: Fuel Export Controls Signal Growing Infrastructure Stress

What happened: The Russian government will enforce a nationwide gasoline export ban from 1 April after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted key Baltic export terminals, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The move follows repeated attacks targeting logistics infrastructure rather than production, prompting authorities to prioritise domestic fuel stability amid rising global prices and increasing pressure on export routes.

Why it matters: Tighter state control over fuel exports and infrastructure security will reduce commercial flexibility and increase volatility in refined product margins. Repeated disruptions, higher insurance costs and handling delays are making export logistics less reliable, while administrative intervention signals a move away from market-driven optimisation toward supply management and risk containment.

What happens next: The Kremlin is likely to expand administrative controls, rerouting strategies and infrastructure protection measures, including enhanced security authority around energy assets. However, export bottlenecks and continued drone strikes will limit flexibility and constrain Russia’s ability to fully capture price upside, reinforcing a more rigid and intervention-heavy operating environment for refined product exports.

Senegal: Increasingly Cash-Strapped Government Could Put Resource Nationalism Into Overdrive

What happened: The Senegalese government admitted to raising $745mn through opaque, high-interest Total Return Swaps to avert a default in 2025, drawing criticism from opposition figures and scrutiny from external partners. Finance Minister Cheikh Diba defended the move, but the use of complex, costly instruments signals mounting fiscal stress after hidden debts and repeated credit downgrades.

Why it matters: The borrowing undermines the government’s transparency narrative and risks further straining relations with the IMF at a time when Senegal needs external financing. Limited access to conventional funding channels increases reliance on unconventional measures. For investors, this raises concerns about policy consistency, regulatory risk and the government’s willingness to take aggressive steps to stabilise finances.

What happens next: The administration is likely to intensify pressure on foreign businesses to generate revenue, including fines, contract reviews and stricter enforcement of local content rules. Oil and gas, mining and construction sectors remain exposed. At the same time, continued fiscal strain may drive further opaque financing measures and increase the risk of politically motivated actions targeting existing investments.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Juan Ramon de la Fuente has resigned as Minister of Foreign Affairs, citing health issues. The current Deputy Minister for North America, Roberto Velasco, will take over pending Senate ratification.

President Claudia Sheinbaum framed the announcement in warm, conciliatory terms, thanked De la Fuente's service, and signaled that he would find another government role once recovered.

In our view, this was a long-anticipated shift. De la Fuente, who played a prominent role during Sheinbaum's presidential campaign, failed to deliver results and had a largely unremarkable tenure at the MOFA.

His limited traction on key bilateral files likely accelerated the timeline for a transition that the administration had been weighing for some time.

Velasco, for his part, has carefully and patiently built the trust of Sheinbaum and her predecessor AMLO, who retains significant behind-the-scenes influence.

Velasco will be a central player with the US, but he may struggle to get traction. Our sources tell us that in Washington, it’s Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch who is most respected.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.