Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image shows Brazilian Senate President, Davi Alcolumbre, who has taken the credit for his chamber rejecting President Lula's nominee for a vacant Supreme Court seat - the first time this has happened in 132 years.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: European Engagement Advances Azerbaijan’s Regional Hub Role

What happened: EU and UK leaders met in Yerevan while Italian PM Giorgia Meloni also visited Baku, reinforcing energy cooperation and signaling cautious progress toward Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization and transit reopening.

Why it matters: Rising EU demand for Azerbaijani gas, TAP expansion to 20 bcm and early normalization steps improve project visibility, but increase sanctions compliance and geopolitical risk exposure.

What happens next: The signposts to watch are upcoming Armenian elections, constitutional changes and peace treaty ratification, along with decisions on TAP expansion and corridor alignment between EU- and US-backed visions.

Brazil: Alcolumbre Deals Blow to Lula

What happened: Senate President Davi Alcolumbre took credit for his chamber’s rejection of President Lula’s nominee for a vacant Supreme Court seat, the first time in 132 years.

Why it matters: Amid the congressional override of Lula’s veto of a law that reduces the sentences of those convicted of crimes on 8 January 2023, including former President Jair Bolsonaro, Alcolumbre declared victory, sending the president a stinging double-punch.

What happens next: Alcolumbre will only work out a deal with Lula if it elevates his stature and helps him retain the Senate presidency in 2027.

Colombia: Polling Law Leaves Investors Flying Blind Ahead of Election

What happened: A draconian electoral law passed in June 2025 drastically changed the Colombian polling industry, creating a data vacuum right before the highly contested presidential election.

Why it matters: This leaves foreign energy investors to navigate without critical information about the public sentiment amid rampant misinformation and escalating institutional friction.

What happens next: Expect increased market volatility and sudden shifts in FDI flows as anxious capital overreacts to a limited number of polls and the variance between them.

Greece: Electricity Players Move to Raise Capital Amid Political Squabble

What happened: Greece’s two largest electricity entities are raising capital simultaneously: IPTO, with a 1bn-euro SCI, and the PPC, with a 4bn-euro SCI.

Why it matters: Both raises expose a fault line that runs through Greek energy politics about who should control strategic infrastructure, and on what terms.

What happens next: Both transactions are targeted for completion by the end of June. While the government’s stance is attractive to private-sector investors, the deals expose Mitsotakis to political attacks at a sensitive time for consumer energy pricing and US relations.

Indonesia: Expect Slow Progress After East Kalimantan Gas Find

What happened: Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced a major gas discovery in East Kalimantan.

Why it matters: This signals that Indonesia still has significant upstream potential, but the real challenge is turning discoveries into commercial production.

What happens next: Investors should expect gradual progress rather than rapid breakthroughs. We anticipate regulatory delays, ongoing debates over gas pricing and domestic allocation, and some policy uncertainty.

Kazakhstan: Akorda Reshuffle Signals Tighter State Oversight

What happened: President Tokayev appointed Roman Sklyar to head Akorda, moving a senior economic technocrat closer to presidential control over strategic policy.

Why it matters: The appointment signals continuity in Kazakhstan’s balancing policy, but also stronger state oversight of assets, contracts and localization.

What happens next: The signposts to watch are Sklyar's policies vis-à-vis Russia and China, and who replaces him at ERG.

Mexico: Rocha’s Indictment Signals Uneasy Bilateral Environment

What happened: A US federal district court indicted Sinaloa Gov. Rubén Rocha and nine other Mexican officials on narcotrafficking charges, the first formal US criminal accusation against a sitting Mexican governor.

Why it matters: The indictment forces President Sheinbaum into a lose-lose choice between protecting a governor from her own coalition and appearing to act on US orders. It also gives Washington a playbook to pressure Mexico across trade and security, making the bilateral environment less predictable and more politically charged.

What happens next: We expect the government to pursue domestic proceedings before an eventual extradition, which remains a politically costly last resort. Either way, the indictment triggers a sequence of administrative, diplomatic and legal steps that will take weeks to play out.

Nigeria: Obi and Kwankwaso Find New Home; Likely Ticket Spooks APC

What happened: Presidential aspirant Peter Obi quit the ADC to join the NDC, along with former Kano State Gov Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Why it matters: Obi’s move realigns the Nigerian opposition, fracturing resistance to Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term bid in 2027 and setting the stage for a rerun of 2023’s trio of top presidential aspirants: Tinubu, Obi and former VP Atiku Abubakar.

What happens next: An Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would be the strongest opposition option; both men have grassroots support in complementary regions. Their alliance does not shift our base case for a second Tinubu win in January, but may produce state-level shocks.

Turkey: BOTAS Bets on Ceyhan as Turkey’s Mediterranean Oil Hub

What happened: BOTAS plans to build 40 crude storage tanks at Ceyhan, expanding capacity from 11mn to 45mn barrels by 2030–31 — Turkey’s largest midstream investment in decades.

Why it matters: The expansion positions Ceyhan as a Mediterranean crude hub, but its success depends on Iraqi supply, which remains contingent on pipeline development; whether BOTAS can evolve from a state-owned pipeline operator into a credible market actor; and on negotiating a new transit agreement with Baghdad.

What happens next: First tanks are due online in 2028. The key variable is whether the Basra-Haditha pipeline delivers sufficient volumes; funding is partially allocated, but timelines remain uncertain.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has named Kazakhstan's First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar to replace Aibek Dadebayev as the head of the Presidential Administration (Akorda).

Sklyar has been in senior government positions since 2019 and his last four years as deputy prime minister was one of several times in that role.

He is an experienced economic manager who has concentrated on mineral extraction and infrastructure construction in the last few years. For example, in March 2026, Sklyar joined the board of the Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), replacing Serik Zhumangarin as the government representative, though that position will now need to be filled again.

In our view, Skylar’s move further into Tokayev’s decision making process at a time of ongoing structural and economic adjustments signals an ongoing effort from Tokayev for tighter control over these two sectors and stronger cross play in the future between state policy and major industrial assets.

it is a demotion for Dedebayev, who had been rumored as a protege of the Tokayev.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.