Welcome to this week’s On Our Radar, covering developments over the last week that will impact emerging markets and why they are relevant for investors.

Last week saw the Russian government warn its neighbors against tilting toward the US and EU as sanctions continue to limit its energy exports, particularly LNG. Jordan also felt the fiscal pressure of war, now banking on the accelerated development of gas fields amid the Iran conflict. In Iraq, four of the members elected to the Oil and Gas Committee are pro-Iran.

Meanwhile, foreign investment was in the headlines in Indonesia, where Chinese investors sent a letter to the government protesting policies it deemed unfair, and in Argentina, where Milei made promises that Congress may be reluctant to fulfill.

We cover these developments and more below, and in further detail on our client portal.

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Americas

Argentina: Milei Promises More Benefits, But Investors Should Monitor Political Sustainability

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What happened: President Javier Milei introduced a new regime, “Super RIGI,” to attract investment in new sectors that add value to natural resources downstream.

Why it matters: This is a new step to push Milei’s investment-driven program, but it contradicts his promise to expand the benefits to the entire economy and make them permanent.

What happens next: Congress will be reluctant to authorize new large benefits for business, while potential investors will be more concerned about political sustainability post-2027 than new extra tax cut promises.

Mexico: Pemex Gets a New CEO, SENER Gets Pemex

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What happened: President Sheinbaum announced that Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez Padilla is stepping down. CFO Juan Carlos Carpio will replace him pending Pemex board approval.

Why it matters: The reshuffle confirms what has been unfolding in practice. Energy Minister Luz Elena Gonzalez has consolidated institutional control of Pemex; the new CEO sits firmly in the Sheinbaum-Gonzalez orbit.

What happens next: Carpio’s mandate will be to execute the government’s existing plan: stabilize the balance sheet, contain operational decline, manage the maturity wall and deliver politically sensitive projects, such as reopening the fracking debate.

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia: Chinese Investors Test Limits of Resource Nationalism

What happened: The Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia sent a formal protest letter to President Prabowo, complaining about government policies that create uncertainty, raise costs and undermine investor confidence.

Why it matters: This is a test for bilateral relations as Chinese state-linked and private firms have poured billions into Indonesia's nickel sector. A public rift signals that the economic foundation of the relationship is under strain, even if diplomatic ties remain warm at the leadership level.

What happens next: As policies become more nationalist, more discretionary and less predictable, we foresee a cooling of Chinese investment, to be felt immediately in the nickel downstream sector, which could delay or cancel planned smelter and battery material projects.

India/Russia: Russia’s India Energy Trade Faces A Sanctions Test

What happened: India used the US sanctions waiver to increase Russian crude imports before 16 May, while refusing sanctioned Russian LNG from Gazprom’s Portovaya project.

Why it matters: For investors, Russian oil exports to India still look resilient, but the rejection of LNG shows that sanctions risk is limiting Moscow’s broader energy pivot.

What happens next: The immediate signposts to watch are the US waiver extension decision and Deputy Energy Minister Sorokin’s June visit.

Europe/Eurasia

Azerbaijan: Russian Pressure on Armenia Raises Stakes For Azerbaijan Investors

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What happened: Over the last week, Russia’s top officials openly escalated pressure on Armenia before the 7 June elections, warning against Yerevan’s EU and US tilt and questioning the TRIPP route.

Why it matters: For investors in Azerbaijan, the vote will shape whether peace, border delimitation and transit links advance or Russian harassment slows regional connectivity.

What happens next: The signpost to watch is whether Armenian PM Pashinyan wins big enough to keep TRIPP and border talks moving despite Russian pressure, protests and Syunik-focused nationalist rhetoric.

Greece: Athens Submits Phase Out Plans to EU; Substitution Routes in Focus

What happened: Greece submitted its Russian gas phase-out plan to the European Commission, identifying LNG and Azeri pipeline gas as replacement sources while domestic commercial actors ramp up their downstream plans.

Why it matters: With EU gas storage at nine-year lows and Russian LNG imports paradoxically rising YoY, Greece's transition plan and its expanding hub infrastructure are acquiring strategic weight beyond its own supply needs.

What happens next: The critical near-term tests are whether DEPA can secure supply agreements that harden the Atlantic-SEE JV beyond its current MoUs, and whether Motor Oil can attract co-investors for a new FSRU.

Middle East/North Africa

Iraq: Militias Seek a Big Role in Oil and Gas Committee

What happened: Parliament has elected the members of the Oil and Gas Committee. Four of them belong to pro-Iranian militias, creating engagement risks for investors.

Why it matters: The militia committee members will have the influence to shape the committee's proceedings, including relations between Baghdad and Erbil.

What happens next: Investors should refrain from engaging militia people, but can build relations with other committee members open to Western investment, notably the probable chair, MP Adil Khamis al-Mahlawi.

Jordan: Amman Threads Needle Amid Wartime Energy Squeeze

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What happened: The Iran war and Hormuz crisis are placing Jordan under added fiscal strain, forcing authorities to seek creative solutions.

Why it matters: Regional partnerships have helped the Kingdom weather the immediate crisis. Over the medium term, Jordan is banking on accelerated development of the Risha gas field to bolster its energy security, potentially freeing it from Israeli imports.

What happens next: Enhanced energy security and integration with regional infrastructure point to a sunny future for the Kingdom — if it can overcome the present crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria: Regulator Umar Approves Import Licenses; Tests Dangote Dynamic

What happened: New Chief Executive of the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) Rabiu Umar said he will prioritize gasoline supply and energy security, days after reportedly approving new fuel import licenses.

Why it matters: The licenses set the stage for an early face-off with billionaire industrialist and Umar’s former boss, Aliko Dangote, who owns and runs the Dangote refinery in Lagos, which supplies the majority of Nigeria’s fuel.

What happens next: Dangote may threaten to export more volumes to exert economic leverage as global markets tighten. Meanwhile, there is scope for tensions with NUPRC Chief Executive Eyesan Oritsemeyiwa as she seeks to bring more transparency to the contentious Domestic Crude Supply Obligation framework.

South Africa: Coal Plants to Seek More Life Extensions

What happened: Eskom will decide by the end of September on whether to proceed with a shutdown, repowering or repurposing of five older coal-fired power plants.

Why it matters: The plants only have exemptions from minimum emission standards until 31 March 2030, but lobbying from the coal sector and delays in new generation projects — including gas-to-power projects — will increase pressure for further life extensions.

What happens next: Eskom could face legal challenges from environmental and public health NGOs if planned shutdowns are delayed, further increasing uncertainty about the future generation mix.

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These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.