Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image is of Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) CEO Wadha al-Khatib, who features in our Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the page.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Country Insights Roundup

Ghana: Ghana Targets Maritime Boundary Resolution With Togo to Jumpstart Oil Exploration

What happened: Ghana has formally notified Togo of its intent to initiate UNCLOS arbitration after years of stalled bilateral negotiations over their maritime boundary. The move escalates the dispute into a legal process, reflecting Accra’s shift toward a rules-based resolution to unlock contested offshore areas, including parts of the prospective Keta Basin.

Why it matters: A definitive maritime boundary would provide the legal certainty needed for investors to commit capital to offshore exploration. Resolving jurisdictional ambiguity is critical to advancing activity in the Keta Basin, restoring confidence after years of stagnation and positioning Ghana more competitively within the Gulf of Guinea energy landscape.

What happens next: Arbitration proceedings will unfold over several years, with Ghana likely to benefit from legal precedent favouring equidistance. However, the tribunal could grant Togo concessions due to coastline geography or encourage a joint development framework, leaving some residual complexity even as overall uncertainty is reduced.

Guinea-Bissau: Trump Administration Cautiously Engages Post-Coup Guinea-Bissau

What happened: A US Deputy Assistant Secretary visited Bissau to explore closer ties with Guinea-Bissau’s post-coup leadership, following continued IMF and World Bank support. The visit marks the first engagement by a non-regional power since the coup, signalling tentative US outreach while maintaining a cautious, low-level diplomatic approach.

Why it matters: US engagement provides incremental legitimacy to the transition authorities and reduces near-term political and contractual risk, particularly alongside multilateral backing. However, the relatively junior level of representation reflects Washington’s caution, indicating concerns over stability, governance and the durability of the post-coup political order.

What happens next: Bilateral discussions will centre on investment, security cooperation and migration issues, with Guinea-Bissau seeking to attract US interest in hydrocarbons and mining. A visit by a more senior US official, particularly to meet the president, would signal a stronger shift toward deeper engagement and greater political commitment.

Iraqi-Kurdistan: PUK, Opposition Challenge the KDP

What happened: The PUK has initiated talks with the opposition New Generation Movement (NGM) to form an alliance aimed at challenging the KDP ahead of renewed Kurdistan Regional Government formation negotiations. While not yet formalised, the partnership reflects Bafel Talabani’s effort to strengthen the PUK’s leverage after a weak electoral showing.

Why it matters: The alliance will not secure a governing majority but materially complicates coalition arithmetic and prolongs political deadlock. It introduces a more confrontational bloc with an appetite to challenge KDP dominance, particularly in energy governance, increasing political friction and raising the risk of disruption to decision-making in key sectors.

What happens next: The KDP will seek to counter by building a broader coalition, likely leveraging concessions to smaller parties while retaining control over core ministries. If the alliance holds, it will continue to delay government formation and use parliamentary mechanisms to pressure and potentially disrupt KDP-led energy initiatives.

Kazakhstan: Referendum Victory Raises New Questions for Investors

What happened: Kazakhstan approved a new constitution via referendum, giving President Tokayev a strong mandate to overhaul the political system. The reforms centralise authority, replace key institutions and expand presidential control over appointments and legislation, marking the most significant restructuring of governance since the mid-1990s.

Why it matters: The changes consolidate executive power and reduce institutional checks, increasing medium-term legal and regulatory risk. The removal of the primacy of international law raises uncertainty around investor protections, contract enforcement and arbitration, complicating the operating environment for energy and mining companies despite potentially faster decision-making.

What happens next: Attention will shift to how Tokayev uses the new framework, particularly Constitutional Court rulings, vice presidential appointments and broader political reshuffles. These will signal whether he intends to manage an orderly succession or leverage the reforms to extend his rule beyond 2029.

Morocco: Morocco Braces for Energy Price Shock, but Buffers Will Hold for Now

What happened: Rising oil and gas prices linked to the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption are increasing pressure on Morocco’s external accounts and fiscal position. As a major hydrocarbon importer, higher energy costs are widening the current account deficit and raising subsidy and support burdens, prompting an initial macroeconomic adjustment from authorities.

Why it matters: The shock exposes Morocco’s structural dependence on imported energy, feeding through to both the current account and public finances. Higher import costs, subsidy pressures and weaker tourism and remittance inflows risk reversing recent fiscal consolidation and testing investor confidence, even as existing buffers provide short-term resilience.

What happens next: Authorities will rely on reserves, IMF backstops and targeted subsidies to manage near-term pressures. If elevated prices persist into 2026, Morocco will face tougher fiscal trade-offs, potential IMF drawdowns and rising social risks, alongside possible delays to investment and energy sector development as policy shifts toward economic stabilisation.

Senegal: Hardline Nationalism Indicates Divided Leadership

What happened: On 12 March, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko escalated interventionist policy, declaring a BP gas contract unfair, revoking 71 mining licences and freezing accounts of an Indorama subsidiary over alleged $438mn arrears. The moves reflect PASTEF’s promised contract audits and coincide with an intensifying political struggle between Sonko and President Faye domestically.

Why it matters: The measures signal a shift from rhetoric to action on resource nationalism, increasing regulatory and political risk for investors. With elite divisions deepening, policy will be less predictable and more punitive. Higher compliance costs, retroactive enforcement and reputational exposure will weigh on energy, mining and construction operators, deterring investment and complicating financing across Senegal.

What happens next: As Sonko consolidates authority, further contract reviews and enforcement actions across oil, gas and mining are likely. Expect fines, delays and licence risks alongside continued political infighting. IMF negotiations will remain strained, prolonging fiscal uncertainty. Additional exits by foreign operators are plausible as deteriorating commercial terms and unpredictability undermine confidence in Senegal.

South Africa: Aucamp Axes Appeal Abeyance

What happened: DFEE Minister Willie Aucamp will proceed with adjudicating appeals against offshore oil and gas environmental authorisations, reversing his predecessor’s decision to pause determinations pending court rulings. The move aims to avoid prolonged regulatory delays and signals a more proactive stance toward balancing environmental oversight with investment and development priorities.

Why it matters: Restarting appeal decisions reduces the risk of multi-year delays that would have affected numerous offshore projects, improving regulatory clarity for operators. It also signals a more investor-aligned approach within government, though recent court rulings mean appeals will face stricter scrutiny and cannot be dismissed easily.

What happens next: Aucamp will appoint an independent panel to review appeals and issue recommendations, though timelines are likely to slip given complexity and ongoing litigation. Judicial challenges from NGOs remain likely, and evolving legal standards will continue to shape outcomes for offshore oil and gas project approvals.

Suriname: Appointments Crisis Is Turning Into a Broader Governance Risk

What happened: A series of corruption and governance scandals involving recent NDP-linked appointees across key state entities, including SZF, MCP and TAS, has exposed weaknesses in President Simons’s appointments strategy. Rapid, politically influenced placements have triggered repeated crises, forcing reactive interventions and raising concerns about the durability of her clean-governance agenda.

Why it matters: The scandals are evolving into a broader coalition conflict between NDP and ABOP, slowing decision-making and diverting political capital into internal disputes. This weakens administrative confidence, delays reform implementation and increases policy unpredictability, with growing risks that governance issues spill into strategic sectors, including energy and local content frameworks.

What happens next: Simons is likely to tighten political vetting, centralise oversight of appointments and seek to reassert control over coalition dynamics. Preventing further reputational damage will require more systematic reforms rather than reactive fixes, particularly to stop factional rivalries from disrupting governance in oil, gas and other economically critical sectors.

Turkey: Iran War Forces Erdogan’s Hand on Fiscal Policy & Election Timeline

What happened: The Iran war’s economic spillover has driven a macroeconomic shift in Turkey, with new tax measures and Finance Minister Şimşek pivoting from a disinflation focus toward managing stagflation risks. The move reflects mounting pressure from energy costs, currency weakness and external financing vulnerabilities as the conflict proves more prolonged than initially expected.

Why it matters: The shift reinforces Şimşek’s position and signals a more durable return to orthodox policy, reducing near-term risks of his dismissal despite political pressure. For investors, it implies tighter fiscal conditions, reduced policy volatility and a greater willingness to absorb short-term pain, though at the cost of weaker growth and continued inflationary pressure.

What happens next
Further fiscal tightening and cautious monetary policy are likely as Ankara prioritises stability over growth. Political timelines are shifting, with Erdoğan likely delaying any early election toward late 2027. Continued exposure to energy prices and external financing conditions will shape policy, while Şimşek’s influence grows within a more constrained economic environment.

Yemen: Despite Yanbu Jitters, Potential Houthi Attacks Likely Less Effective This Time

What happened: A senior Houthi figure signalled potential military support for Iran, though other officials quickly clarified that no final decision has been taken. The mixed messaging reflects internal dynamics but adds to growing indications that the group is considering entering the Iran war at a time of heightened regional tension.

Why it matters: The prospect of Houthi involvement increases perceived risk to Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil flows redirected to Yanbu, reinforcing upward pressure on energy prices. Even without immediate action, the signalling contributes to market volatility and complicates security calculations for regional actors and commercial shipping operators.

What happens next: If the Houthis enter the conflict, initial high-impact attacks are likely to be followed by sustained but less effective operations. Adaptation by shipping firms, reluctance to escalate directly against Saudi Arabia, and stronger Israeli defences will limit disruption, with any impact on oil markets likely sharp but short-lived rather than sustained.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) CEO Wadha al-Khatib received Prime Minister Ahmed al-Sabah and other oil sector leaders at KNPC headquarters after Iranian drone attacks caused fires at the Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries.

During the visit, Khatib helped brief the prime minister on KNPC’s rapid action plan in response to the attacks.

Coming as attacks on the Mina facilities damaged at least two units at the adjacent Mina refineries and forced KNPC to suspend operations at several units, Khatib’s reception of Prime Minister Ahmed significantly increased the KNPC’s CEO’s usually fairly minor profile.

Depending on how well she manages her company’s wartime crisis, we expect the next few weeks will see her acquire additional prominence or see her consigned to oblivion within Kuwait’s oil bureaucracy.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.