Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image shows Brazilian President Lula hosting President Simons of Suriname in Brasilia, where they strengthened their diplomatic ties by signing a number of bilateral accords.

We cover these developments and more below, and in further detail on our client portal. To receive our full reporting and analysis, or to enquire about a complimentary country-risk briefing from one of our country experts, please click here for more information. 

Americas

Brazil/Suriname: Lula, Simons Lay Groundwork for Deeper Petrobras-Staatsolie Ties

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What happened: Brazilian President Lula hosted Surinamese President Simons in Brasilia to sign 13 bilateral accords spanning energy, infrastructure, security, and social policy.

Why it matters: The accords are the centerpiece of Lula's broader push to forge an integrated economic and political bloc across Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana, a regional development play with strategic weight.

What happens next: Brazilian Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira, the architect of the summit, will drive implementation of the accords and deepen Petrobras' commercial relationship with Staatsolie.

Canada: Alberta Separation Debate Overshadows LNG Deal With Germany

What happened: Debates over national unity and energy collided as Prime Minister Mark Carney weighed in on Alberta’s referendum, former Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault resigned and Ottawa signed a major LNG deal with Germany.

Why it matters: Carney’s pro-energy agenda is making gains, but pushback from his party and political uncertainty in Alberta could derail them.

What happens next: Carney must manage caucus unrest and the separation debate to reassure potential energy investors.

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia: Prabowo Needs Aceh to Realize Upstream Ambitions

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What happened: SKK Migas and BPMA agreed to expand Aceh’s role in the management of its own offshore oil and gas resources, including areas beyond the province’s traditional 12 nautical mile maritime jurisdiction.

Why this matters: Aceh’s offshore position near the Malacca Strait gives the issue broader strategic relevance. The region sits close to major shipping lanes and Indonesia is currently trying to revive investor interest in upstream exploration.

What happens next: As the Prabowo administration seeks to increase upstream investment in Aceh, it will push for a complex working framework for SKK Migas and BPMA to share offshore operational authority. Existing and future PSC structures may be adjusted.

Europe/Eurasia

Kazakhstan: Putin's Visit to Astana

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What happened: Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan after publishing a local op-ed that framed energy, gas, nuclear power, critical minerals and EAEU loyalty as Moscow’s main priorities.

Why it matters: The visit shows Russia seeking deeper leverage over Kazakhstan’s export routes, mining ownership, legal decisions and future nuclear infrastructure.

What happens next: Watch whether Astana signs or signals new Gazprom, Rosatom or mining-related commitments and how firmly it resists being pulled closer to Moscow.

Russia: Private Air Defense Raises Russian Energy Costs

What happened: Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan after publishing a local op-ed that framed energy, gas, nuclear power, critical minerals and EAEU loyalty as Moscow’s main priorities.

Why it matters: The visit shows Russia seeking deeper leverage over Kazakhstan’s export routes, mining ownership, legal decisions and future nuclear infrastructure.

What happens next: Watch whether Astana signs or signals new Gazprom, Rosatom or mining-related commitments and how firmly it resists being pulled closer to Moscow.

Middle East/North Africa

Iraqi-Kurdistan: KDP Seeks to Rebalance Kurdish Power Dynamics

What happened: The KDP is pushing for snap elections mainly to pressure the PUK in government-formation talks, but political and technical obstacles make snap elections unlikely.

Why it matters: The KDP position indicates broader, currently intractable disagreements with the PUK over Kurdish representation in Baghdad.

What happens next: Government formation is likely to resume gradually after Eid through renewed KDP-PUK talks led in part by Nechirvan Barzani, though the Interior Ministry remains the main obstacle.

Yemen: Tariff Hike Signals ROYG Reform Resolve; Will Face Pushback

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What happened: As part of a series of major economic reforms, the Yemeni government liberalized the customs dollar used to calculate import duties, effectively doubling tariffs on non-essential goods.

Why it matters: The measure, which comes amid a major deficit and liquidity crisis, both nets needed revenue and signals the ROYG’s willingness to confront powerful interests in pursuing structural reforms.

What happens next: We expect significant pushback, which the ROYG is well-positioned to ride out, with sustained reform positively affecting the long term. However, the ROYG's fiscal challenges and obstacles to hydrocarbon investment will remain until a Saudi-Houthi deal is reached.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Guinea-Bissau: Petroguin Chairman, Interim CEO Compete for Investor Spotlight

What happened: Florentino Fernando Dias took office as chairman of the board of Petroguin, the NOC.

Why it matters: Dias' elevation strengthens Natural Resources Minister Julio Balde, whose influence with Prime Minister Ilidio Vieira Te has been growing.

What happens next: Petroguin interim director Alfredo Malu has been very active pitching oil opportunities to IECs; we expect Dias and Malu to jostle for foreign investor attention in the near future.

Niger: CNPC Return Will Accelerate US-China Race for Niger's Resources

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What happened: The Nigerien government reached a deal with CNPC to resume oil and gas operations and to boost investment in the sector.

Why it matters: Niger is making a political play to leverage the US-China rivalry by hoping to pique Trump's interest in the country's vast uranium reserves.

What happens next: Great-power competition over Niger’s resources will almost certainly worsen the investment environment for operators from other countries.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.