Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

This week's banner image shows Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima, whose choice as President Tinubu's continuity candidate in the upcoming January elections is covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

We cover all developments featured below in further detail on our client portal. To receive our full reporting and analysis on any of these events, or to enquire about a complimentary country-risk briefing from one of our country experts, please click here for more information.

Americas

Argentina: Milei Leans on Governors to Reset Re-Election Strategy

What happened: President Javier Milei has reset his reelection strategy, focusing on securing agreements with more than half of Argentina's governors.

Why it matters: This is a pragmatic shift for Milei and his sister, Karina Milei, who will now prioritize her brother's re-election over winning provinces or seats in Congress.

What happens next: Over the next two quarters, these alliances should materialize in support for the government’s reform agenda in Congress in exchange for cash and public works for like-minded governors.

Brazil: Oliveira Seeks to Regulate Gas Re-Injection to Boost Output

What happened: Sen. Laercio Oliveira plans to introduce a new gas bill to regulate offshore gas re-injection.

Why it matters: Oliveira also co-sponsored the domestic fertilizer production promotion initiative PROFERT this year, hoping to stir up greater support for domestic gas output.

What happens next: These bills allow Oliveira to advance his highest priority — liberalization of the gas sector — while placing him in a positive national spotlight.

Asia-Pacific

India: ONGC Makes Big Bet on New Strategic Petroleum Reserve

What happened: ONGC plans to build a new strategic petroleum reserve with a capacity to hold nearly 2mn tons of fuel in Mangalore.

Why it matters: This represents a major expansion of India’s current reserves at a moment when the country badly needs to insulate itself from vulnerabilities tied to Gulf supply security.

What happens next: The trajectory of instability in the Middle East will determine the pace at which the government constructs the new reserve.

Europe/Eurasia

Azerbaijan: SOCAR’s Baleine Entry Tests Global Growth Discipline

What happened: SOCAR and PETROCI reviewed the Baleine offshore oil and gas field on 7 July while Phase 3 contracts advanced, but the 10% acquisition still lacks confirmed closing terms or a disclosed purchase price.

Why it matters: Baleine could diversify SOCAR’s cash flow and technical expertise, but investors must judge whether overseas expansion competes with financing for Azerbaijan’s domestic energy priorities.

What happens next: Investors should watch for deal completion, financing details, Phase 3 capital calls, crude marketing rights and binding PETROCI projects beyond the Baleine stake.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Reset Raises Investor Questions Before Kurultai Vote

What happened: The Constitutional Court cleared Tokayev to run again by resetting his presidential eligibility under the new Constitution.

Why it matters: For investors, this signals continuity under Tokayev and shows that legal limits can be reinterpreted when Akorda needs flexibility.

What happens next: Watch the 23 August Kurultai vote, Adilet’s margin, Tokayev's vice presidential pick and any new subsoil or tax bills after the election.

Middle East/North Africa

Cyprus: Cyprus Talks Gain Momentum, but Investors Should Expect Pragmatism Rather Than Peace

What happened: UN envoy María Ángela Holguín intensified consultations with leaders in Cyprus, Greece and Turkey ahead of a renewed diplomatic push to revive negotiations over the island's future.

Why it matters: Even without a comprehensive settlement, sustained dialogue could unlock politically easier cooperation on energy, infrastructure and regional investment while lowering geopolitical risk.

What happens next: Investors should expect confidence-building measures and practical agreements to advance faster than constitutional negotiations, particularly if Athens and Ankara maintain their current rapprochement.

Libya: Misratans Decry Haftar Role, but US Unification Plan Keeps Rolling

What happened: Trump advisor Massad Boulos engaged in a week of shuttle diplomacy in Libya, trying to win over opponents of a unity plan that would see Saddam Haftar lead the Presidential Council.

Why it matters: Although our contacts in Washington believe consensus is building around the plan — which Boulos hopes will open the door to US oil and gas investment — powerful actors in the key city of Misrata voiced opposition when Boulos visited.

What happens next: As Washington seeks to build momentum, we expect opposing forces to rally, with shows of strength by armed groups and increased coordination by political actors. It likely will not suffice to block the plan.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria: Tinubu Keeps Veep for 2027; Puts Northern Fears Before US Ties

What happened: The ruling All Progressives Congress said President Tinubu will once again run alongside Vice President Kashim Shettima in the January election, ending months of speculation.

Why it matters: Tinubu is framing Shettima as a continuity candidate who can consolidate the government’s first-term gains. The choice also highlights the president’s concern over his northern vote share, which trumps pressure from the US to nominate a Christian VP.

What happens next: Given Tinubu’s shaky health, investors should engage Shettima, but they should not mistake him for successor material, with NSA Nuhu Ribadu still the heir apparent.

Senegal: New Petrosen Head Will Try to Mitigate Oil and Gas Populism

What happened: President Diomaye Faye appointed petroleum engineer Thierno Seydou Ly to head up Petrosen.

Why it matters: Ly replaced Alioune Gueye, a close ally of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and leading proponent of contract renegotiations, returning Petrosen to the hands of oil and gas experts.

What happens next: The change underscores Faye's intention to tone down the aggressive nationalist oil and gas rhetoric and also suggests he plans to moderate any efforts to renegotiate contracts with foreign operators.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.