Welcome to this edition of On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the previous week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets and why they are relevant to foreign investors.

Our coverage of important energy deals continued last week, with two standing out:

First, in Canada, Alberta submitted its proposal for the West Coast Pipeline to Ottowa’s Major Projects Office, marking both a significant step forward and a compromise on previous conflict with British Colombia and Indigenous communities.

Second, in Azerbaijan, SOCAR and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector agreed on a financing channel for future projects. Though the agreement is nonbinding, it opens new pathways for Baku as the government looks to reduce reliance on Russia.

As always, stakeholders were front and center in our coverage. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori was declared winner weeks after the dramatic presidential election. We’ll be monitoring if the political stability from her party’s share of Congress will translate into investment returns. In South Africa, a ministerial reshuffle that saw leadership changes at the Departments of Agriculture and Forest, Fisheries and the Environment could delay environmental authorizations.

We cover these developments and more below, and in further detail on our client portal. To receive our full reporting and analysis, or to enquire about a complimentary country-risk briefing from one of our country experts, please click here to get in touch. 

Americas

Canada: Provinces Back Pipeline

What happened: Alberta submitted its proposed West Coast Pipeline to Ottawa’s Major Projects Office, advancing a southern route and a public-private partnership.

Why it matters: Government backing derisks the project for investors, and the route avoids previous political conflict with BC and Indigenous communities.

What happens next: The Major Projects Office will determine this fall whether the pipeline qualifies as a project of national interest, which would trigger accelerated approvals.

Peru: A Pro-Market Presidency Without a Pro-Market Majority

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What happened: Keiko Fujimori won Peru's presidency on her fourth attempt, edging leftist Roberto Sánchez by roughly 50,000 votes (50.1% to 49.8%).

Why it matters: Fujimori's victory removes the single biggest risk that has haunted Peruvian progress for a decade, another presidential removal by Congress, but leaves energy vulnerability and the southern protest risk, which will determine whether political stability actually translates into investment returns.

What happens next: Expect fast wins like deregulation, state-owned oil company asset sales and gas distribution approvals, but silence on structural problems — nearly all of Peru's gas will keep moving through a single pipeline, with no near-term funded solution.

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia: CCS Ambitions Face Operational Approval Hurdles

What happened: Indonesia continues to pitch itself as a regional CCS hub, but has yet to operationalize the Carbon Storage Permit Area (WIPK) regime because SKK Migas faces significant technical, commercial and institutional bottlenecks to approve carbon storage projects.

Why it matters: The slow WIPK approval process raises questions about Indonesia's ability to translate political commitment into commercially viable CCS projects and is dragging the development of the entire CCS value chain.

What happens next: While we expect CCS investor interest to remain strong, given Indonesia's large geological storage potential and positive policy direction, FIDs will be delayed, putting SKK Migas under even greater pressure to expedite its technical evaluation.

Japan: Energy Security Ripple Effect

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What happened: Japan is working to ease supply constraints brought about by the Iran war

Why it matters: As the region's energy market maker, Japan's efforts to realign supply will ripple through Asia-Pacific.

What happens next: Both government and industry will develop and implement plans to shore up energy security and hedge against political risk in the Middle East.

Europe/Eurasia

Azerbaijan: SOCAR Tests Islamic Finance for Future Projects

What happened: SOCAR and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector agreed to create a formal Islamic finance channel for future SOCAR-linked projects.

Why it matters: The non-binding framework still matters because it gives SOCAR a credible route to ICD structuring, Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit risk cover and Gulf capital.

What happens next: The key test is whether late 2026 brings named SOCAR Green projects, ICD mandates, ICIEC approvals, insurance policies or Western banks joining syndicates.

Greece: Sale of US Fighter Engines to Ankara Tests Athens's Sway in Washington

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What happened: The Trump administration's recent moves to sell US fighter jets to Turkey and review its readmission into the F35 program are reviving Athens's worst fears about a US-Turkey reset.

Why it matters: Coming days before the NATO summit in Ankara, the timing reads in Athens as a signal that Greek influence in Washington has limits PM Mitsotakis cannot fully offset — just as the broader EU is also recalibrating toward Turkey.

What happens next: Expect Athens to lean on diaspora and congressional channels to keep CAATSA sanctions on Ankara in place while privately bracing for a more transactional Trump approach to Turkey arms sales.

Middle East/North Africa

Iraqi-Kurdistan: Masrour and Nechirvan Barzani Strengthen Spheres of Influence

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What happened: Masrour Barzani has solidified himself as a stronger candidate within Kurdistan, driving its hardline KRG-formation strategy, while Nechirvan Barzani is gaining influence in Baghdad and with external actors.

Why it matters: Masrour Barzani will have a larger say in KRG posts, including over the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), and has become the KDP’s diplomatic face in Washington.

What happens next: Government formation will stoke more jockeying for political influence, and it is important for investors to avoid the appearance of picking a side.

Morocco: For Now, ONHYM Emerges as Winner in Gas Sector Power Struggle

What happened: Morocco has formally converted ONHYM into a joint-stock company with expanded borrowing, investment and partnership powers, though a broader gas market reform plan remains stalled.

Why it matters: The change strengthens ONHYM’s de facto control over Morocco’s gas sector and exposes a deeper struggle between a state-led model centered on ONHYM and a more competitive, ministry-led regulatory framework.

What happens next: With Energy Minister Leila Benali tipped to leave after the September elections, the fate of the stalled gas market bill will depend on the next government, with ONHYM likely to remain in charge at least for now.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria: Direct to Farmer, Nigeria Revives Its Riskiest Fertilizer Channel

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What happened: President Tinubu announced the government will deliver 22mn bags of fertilizer in 2026, roughly double the amount dispatched in 2025, and shifted oversight of the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative from the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority to the Ministry of Finance ahead of the January 2027 general election.

Why it matters: The 22mn bags are a commercial blending target sold at market prices, not a subsidy program. But the Tinubu government has added a parallel subsidized distribution channel, reintroducing the fiscal risks that the commercially structured PFI was originally designed to eliminate.

What happens next: Watch for payment delays at the subsidized distribution level within six months of the January 2027 election. Where Tinubu wins, electoral budgets face immediate fiscal pressure; where governments change, new administrations have no stake in delivering a predecessor's program.

South Africa: Ministerial Reshuffle May Cause Environmental Authorization Delays

What happened: President Ramaphosa announced a minor cabinet reshuffle, largely to accommodate a request from new Democratic Alliance leader Geordin Hill-Lewis.

Why it matters: Willie Aucamp replaces former DA leader John Steenhuisen as Minister of Agriculture; David Maynier takes over from Aucamp at the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment.

What happens next: Maynier's appointment will result in administrative delays to environmental authorizations and other initiatives proposed by Aucamp as he gets to grips with his department.

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These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.