Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week we've introduced a new feature to the newsletter: the Complementary Read, which provides you with full access to a select article from the previous week for free (you can find it just after the Country Insights Roundup).

This week, our Complementary Read covers the election of Adao de Almeida as the Angolan parliamentary speaker - which is reflected in our banner image of the Angolan National Assembly building in Luanda (Credit: David Stanley, reproduced under CC2.0).

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: SOCAR Widens Door for Foreign Upstream Capital

What happened: Government officials have discussed the impact of declining hydrocarbon revenues, while SOCAR’s forecasts suggest a near-term drop in gas production in addition to a longer-term decline in oil output.

Why it matters: SOCAR is seeking long-term foreign partners and opening both frontier and mature upstream assets to foreign capital.

What happens next: The key signpost will be the new well result at Umid in 2026, which is likely to shape BP’s decision on Umid-Babek, with Azerbaijan’s government media speculating that SOCAR has invited BP to join the project.

Brazil: Chambriard’s Team Replaces Solar and Wind with Ethanol

What happened: Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard presented the strategic investment plan for 2026-2030.

Why it matters: The plan reaffirms the NOC’s commitment to its lucrative pre-salt crude business but also steps back from a solar and wind future envisioned by Chambriard’s predecessor, Jean Paul Prates.

What happens next: Instead, Chambriard’s team will build out a series of biorefineries and make a play to become a major ethanol producer in the coming year.

Guyana: Ali Woos Non-Oil Investors to Deliver Economic Transformation

What happened: President Ali wants to attract $10bn in new infrastructure and energy-linked investment over the next five years despite oil price volatility.

Why it matters: The government will continue to stress macroeconomic stability and welcome FDI in oil and gas, even as it presses for more gas production and greater involvement of the domestic private sector.

What happens next: Investment opportunities will continue to abound, but lower oil prices and structural weaknesses might put a brake on plans.

Indonesia: SKK Migas, ESDM Go Big on Bid Rounds

What happened: Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia announced that oil lifting will surpass this year's government target of 605,000 bpd.

Why it matters: Indonesia has struggled for many years to meet its upstream production and lifting targets, so the reported milestone sends a positive signal of operational improvement and a delivery push.

What happens next: The government will continue to push upstream reforms — including faster licensing and new exploration blocks — to sustain the production momentum.

Kazakhstan: Ukrainian Strikes Threaten Kazakh Energy Export Backbone

What happened: Ukrainian naval drones destroyed a key offshore loading buoy of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, triggering the harshest diplomatic exchange between Kyiv and Astana so far.

Why it matters: The CPC route underpins Kazakhstan's massive annual oil revenues and remains central to foreign investor exposure in both the energy and mining sectors.

What happens next: Unless Washington pressures Kyiv to limit strikes on CPC-linked assets, further attacks are likely; these will force Astana to accelerate costly rerouting and triggering financial instability, at least in the short term.

Libya: Trump Advisor Brokers Mysterious Spending Deal Between Rival Houses

What happened: White House advisor Massad Boulos has spearheaded a deal on national spending between Libya’s rival governments and, more importantly, their ruling families.

Why it matters: The agreement appears to be a step toward a long-elusive national budget, but the lack of transparency surrounding its genesis and contents is raising suspicions.

What happens next: The deal could slip amid Boulos’s erratic focus on Libya; if it sticks, it risks further entrenching the Dabaiba and Haftar families at the expense of the UN process.

Mexico: Gertz’s Exit Boosts Harfuch’s Leverage

What happened: Attorney General Alejandro Gertz resigned under clear political pressure. Ernestina Godoy, Sheinbaum's long-time collaborator, took over as interim AG and is likely to secure the permanent role.

Why it matters: The shift aligns the AG's office with Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch, creating a unified security–prosecution front. This could accelerate actions against crimes like fuel theft and extortion, while increasing political influence over prosecutorial decisions.

What happens next: The Senate has opened the formal selection process. If Godoy is appointed, Sheinbaum will replicate the Harfuch–Godoy model she used to centralize security in Mexico City, bringing stronger coordination but weaker institutional checks at the federal level.

Mozambique: Maputo & Pretoria Bolster Ties to Secure Energy Future

What happened: President Daniel Chapo hosted South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Maputo.

Why it matters: The meeting signaled a clear warming of relations after years of strain, and indicated a shift toward a more predictable foreign policy under Chapo — particularly in how Mozambique manages regional energy interests.

What happens next: We expect the two sides to deepen cooperation in the energy sector, with the bilateral relationship likely to become one of the most important in Southern Africa through the rest of the decade.

Namibia: Subnational Gains Highlight Swapo’s Weakness

What happened: Swapo won nearly two-thirds of the total vote share in the regional and local elections, a marked improvement from 2020 — at least on paper.

Why it matters: The ruling party had become vulnerable, especially among urban populations.

What happens next: Swapo will continue to face the prospect of losing its parliamentary majority before the end of the decade.

Nigeria: Domestic Demands Dent Tinubu’s Diplomatic Effort

What happened: More than two years into his administration, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu nominated 35 ambassadors this month.

Why it matters: The nominations are part of Tinubu’s effort to show diplomatic credibility and a more serious approach to foreign affairs after US President Donald Trump hit out at the Nigerian government for its security failings.

What happens next: The nominees feature some controversial names, whose promotion to major diplomatic roles could backfire badly on Tinubu and Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar.

Complementary Read

Angola: Lourenco’s Succession Race Heats Up With Speaker Selection

What happened: Angola’s parliament elected Adao de Almeida as its speaker, and the Supreme Court cleared charges against members of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’s circle.

Why this matters: These developments came as political maneuvering ahead of Lourenco’s succession has accelerated, with two clear factions within the MPLA beginning to emerge.

What happens next: With Lourenco's term as MPLA leader ending in 2026 and general elections in 2027, we foresee spurned generals and the offspring of the late President Dos Santos potentially aligning to try to elect new party leadership.

Click here to read the full article

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Argentinian politician Patricia Bullrich

Patricia Bullrich has quit as Javier Milei’s Security Minister to take the Senate seat she won in the Buenos Aires city election in October.

Starting 10 December, Bullrich will chair the ruling La Libertad Avanza party caucus in the upper house. She will lead 18 members, almost triple the number of the bloc’s size during Milei’s first two years in office. But it will still fall short of a majority.

Having served twice as security minister, under Milei and former president Mauricio Macri, Bullrich will push for a new, hardline Criminal Code that increases punishment.

We think that Bullrich will also clash with Vice President Victoria Villarruel, who is not on speaking terms with Milei.

The beef dates back to Milei’s December 2023 appointment of Bullrich as security minister. Villarruel had expressed interest in overseeing the sector. In our view, Bullrich will be a key player in Congress for the ruling party as Milei pushes for labor and tax reforms, among other legislative efforts. However, Bullrich may not stay in the Senate long.

She has not hidden her presidential ambitions and likely will want to take a step in that direction in 2027. She could either run for mayor of Buenos Aires or replace Villarruel as Milei’s running mate in the next election.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.