Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Staatsoli CEO Annand Jagesar, whose rising influence is covered in this week's Stakeholder Influence Tracker at the bottom of the newsletter.

Country Insights Roundup

Brazil: Undercut by Dias, Nogueira to Woo Flavio

What happened: Social Development Minister Wellington Dias cut a deal with the PSD in Piaui to block Sen. Ciro Nogueira's reelection bid.

What it means: By drawing the PSD closer to President Lula, Dias — who supports opening the equatorial margin play to E&P — has undermined Nogueira's ability to broker an opposition presidential ticket.

What comes next: We expect Nogueira to shift his focus to persuading presidential hopeful Flavio Bolsonaro to name him as his running mate to keep him in the spotlight.

Canada: Alberta's Referendum Seeks More Powers From Ottawa

What happened: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith set a provincial referendum for October, demanding increased immigration powers from Ottawa, days before introducing a deficit-laden provincial budget.

Why it matters: Smith is using immigration anxiety to pressure Ottawa to approve major projects and dial down separatist momentum, while distracting voters from economic problems in her province.

What happens next: An eight-month referendum campaign will pit the need for a growing workforce against anti-immigrant sentiment and calls for increased provincial autonomy.

Indonesia: Freeport Extension Sends Mostly Positive Investment Signals

What happened: The government agreed to extend Freeport's mining permit beyond 2041 to secure the future operation of the Grasberg mine, one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits.

Why it matters: The MoU was signed in Washington during Prabowo’s visit for trade talks with the Trump administration, which signals to investors that Indonesia remains open to long-term investment partnerships, including in oil and gas.

What happens next: Investors should expect a more selective and pragmatic approach rather than sweeping liberalization in Indonesia's resource policy.

Iraq: Baghdad’s New Maritime Claims Could Complicate Two Critical Megaprojects

What happened: Iraq announced new maritime territory claims, reigniting a dispute with Kuwait over the Khor Abdullah and igniting a new one over the Saudi-Kuwaiti Divided Zone.

Why it matters: Iraq’s new claims directly threaten two of Kuwait’s most important projects, the China-backed Mubarak al-Kabir port and the Saudi-backed Durra gas field development.

What happens next: Although we do not expect the claims to block development on either project for now, they raise long-term political risk for both.

Kazakhstan: Government Courts US Capital While Risks Persist

What happened: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with major US investors to discuss an advanced investment pipeline, including in mining and transport corridors. This came alongside a meeting of the Investment Climate Improvement Council on implementing investment agreements with US businesses.

Why it matters: Deeper US engagement improves mining and energy financing and technology prospects, but pipeline security risks, sanctions inconsistencies and unresolved Lukoil asset sales continue to shape operational and compliance exposure.

What happens next: We expect stronger US-Kazakhstan deal flow in mining and AI-linked infrastructure, while investors closely watch the security landscape around the CPC and Druzhba and the handling of sanctions and Russian asset transfers.

Malaysia: Sarawak's Federal Court Gambit Drags Petronas Fight Offshore

What happened: Sarawak petitioned Malaysia's apex court to challenge the validity of three federal petroleum laws, in response to Petronas' January motion for legal clarity; the Kuching High Court ruled against Petros in the bank guarantee case, but punted on the constitutional conflict.

Why it matters: A large onshore gas dispute could become a broader fight over offshore rights and jurisdiction, raising the stakes for federal-state relations and the industry's legal foundations.

What happens next: If the Federal Court hears the NOC's motion, it will probably hear Sarawak's petition, too; or both could be declined, and the uncertainty lingers until the next general election.

Namibia: NNN's Petroleum Power Shift Triggers Political Backlash

What happened: The introduction of a bill to place control of upstream petroleum in the Office of the President has sparked a wave of political opposition amid unproven allegations that NNN’s family stands to benefit.

Why it matters: Delays and uncertainty around the establishment of the Upstream Petroleum Unit, particularly claims about favoritism toward politically connected individuals, risk clouding the investment climate at a critical stage for the sector.

What happens next: If political opposition intensifies, NNN may have to compromise by incorporating stronger transparency provisions and reporting clauses to improve the UPU’s accountability to parliament — a move that could delay UPU getting full legal powers.

Nigeria: Executive Order Simplifies Payment, Strains NNPC, Signals Stakeholder Volatility

What happened: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu issued Executive Order Nine, which aims to protect government revenue by suspending a range of NNPC allocations and putting oil cash into a single pot under the federation account.

Why it matters: If properly implemented, the order could simplify payment structures, curb corruption, better direct NNPC spending and bolster government coffers.

What happens next: Near-term risks include stakeholder volatility at NNPC, legal pushback and strike threats from furious energy unions. Further out, we have concerns over the centralization of oil revenue collection in a campaign year.

Sierra Leone: SLNPC Begins Operations Amid Uncertainty

What happened: The government officially established the Sierra Leone National Petroleum Company.

Why it matters: The move creates a high-stakes partner but also a “regulator-player” conflict that could deter transparent investment and trigger market friction.

What happens next: We expect the newly minted NOC to focus on negotiating its 10% equity stakes with existing players and new entrants while grappling with institutional battles.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Staatsolie CEO Annand Jagesar said Suriname expects a second Final Investment Decision (FID) later in 2026. The decision would come from Petronas for Block 52, which is widely seen as mainly a gas development.

The expectation follows Jagesar’s remarks during a presentation at the Guyana International Energy Conference in Georgetown, where he noted that Petronas’ well test results were stronger than expected and pointed to rising confidence in the project timeline.

Given that a second FID has been expected for some time, we believe the announcement moves Suriname closer to “new frontier” status in oil and gas. It also gives Jagesar another landmark win before his contract ends in 2028, even as first gas is expected around 2030.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.