Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information. 

This week's banner image is of To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, holding a press conference last week to announce that he had been reelected in a development covered in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Milei's Open Economy Snubs Local Manufacturing Champion

What happened: An international tender for the pipes of a key duct to kickstart Argentina’s LNG project went to an Indian manufacturer, sidelining local champion Techint.

Why it matters: This is the first time in over 70 years that a major energy pipeline will not have Techint ducts, signaling President Javier Milei’s vision about a fully open economy.

What happens next: The Milei administration will continue to push for deregulation and less government intervention, but pushback from local interests will force it to pace reforms.

Greece: Energy Players to Keep US Engaged as Mitsotakis Walks Diplomatic Tightrope

What happened: PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis skipped Davos amid the Greenland controversy, but Greek industrialists have been pursuing their own energy diplomacy with Americans.

Why it matters: Mitsotakis’s initial enthusiasm for Washington's energy agenda has been muted by his efforts to maintain a balance with European partners.

What happens next: Driven by the promise of lucrative energy deals, some Greek tycoons appear determined to pursue the LNG gateway plan even if Mitsotakis and official diplomacy are sidelined.

Iran: New Sanctions Maintain Pressure on Iran's Oil Trade

What happened: The US Treasury’s latest sanctions around Iran’s energy trade included nine vessels and associated shell companies from Oman, India, the UAE and the Marshall Islands.

Why it matters: These sanctions, which aim to maintain economic pressure on Iran’s economy, highlight the global nature of the illicit trade and the difficulty of enforcement.

What happens next: Economic sanctions will be part of the toolkit of US toolkit for pressuring Iran’s regime, which could also include targeted military action. Further sanctions will likely focus on additional vessels, smuggling targets in Iraq and financial actors involved in carrying IRGC funding. US officials will calibrate efforts to maintain pressure on Iran with the goal of maintaining the China truce.

Kurdistan: Development Road Imperiled by Renewed Baghdad-Erbil Tensions

What happened: Tensions resurfaced over border ports as Baghdad inaugurated the first step in the Development Road Project.

Why it matters: Border port tensions can spill over to government formation negotiations.

What happens next: Unable to confront Baghdad alone, the KRG will use Washington’s help, but the issue will reemerge in the future.

Libya: NOC Raises Alarm over Lack of Operating Budget

What happened: As Tripoli hosts its flagship Energy and Economy Summit, the NOC has been warning that it is hobbled by a lack of funds and rising debts, piercing the otherwise rosy narrative.

Why it matters: The NOC faces two key challenges that could inhibit progress toward its ambitious goals — it has no operational budget, and its debts to service companies and suppliers are mounting.

What happens next: With the GNU increasingly weakened amid continuing political divides, there is no obvious path to resolving the NOC’s budget woes. For contractors and investment partners, this spells rising payment risk.

Mexico: Slim Expands Control over Lukoil's Mexican Portfolio

What happened: Carlos Slim, via Grupo Carso, moved to fully control of the Ichalkil and Pokoch offshore fields by acquiring Fieldwood Mexico from Lukoil.

Why it matters: The transaction reinforces the billionaire's role as a preferred counterparty under Mexico's state-centric energy model while raising barriers to entry for smaller operators.

What happens next: Closing remains subject to Mexican regulatory approvals and specific OFAC authorization due to Lukoil's US sanctions exposure.

South Africa: Full Eskom Control vs Market Independence

What happened: Eskom's revised unbundling strategy has raised concerns over the independence of the market framework.

Why it matters: Splitting generation, transmission and distribution functions into separate divisions is critical to establishing a fair and transparent market structure for private investment.

What happens next: With Eskom seeking to maintain as much control as possible, the private sector will need to keep up the pressure to secure full market independence.

Uruguay: Government Weights Options for Oil-Producing Future

What happened: The Orsi administration is engaged in an internal debate over how to proceed with offshore oil exploration.

Why it matters: The key outstanding issues are ANCAP's role, whether or not to embrace royalties — leaving risk largely in private hands — and how future oil revenues will be allocated.

What happens next: The president's economic team is emerging as the main stakeholder in oil exploration decision-making — a good sign for foreign investors.

US: Dems Play Shutdown Hardball

What happened: Democrats are threatening to shut down the government if the Trump administration doesn't agree to separate immigration enforcement and restrict ICE operations.

Why it matters: Many government functions will be halted or slowed during a potential shutdown, as happened last October and November.

What happens next: Dems believe they have the public on their side, which raises their tolerance for a long shutdown.

Vietnam: Unanimous Reelection Cements Lam's Mandate

What happened: The 14th Party Congress unanimously reelected To Lam as general secretary; he may also assume the presidency, consolidating power unseen in Vietnam since Ho Chi Minh.

Why it matters: With his political capital secured, To Lam will pivot to execution, promising faster approvals and streamlined deal-making in strategic sectors like energy.

What happens next: Watch for key personnel appointments and whether the reform push translates into quicker licensing — or simply more centralized risk.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

President Prabowo Subianto appointed Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia as Chairman of the National Energy Council during a ceremony at the Presidential Palace.

This council is the strategic advisory body guiding Indonesia’s long-term energy planning, balancing fossil fuel and renewable interests, and coordinating policy across ministries.

Bahlil’s appointment makes him the central figure in translating the president’s energy priorities into actionable programs.

The appointment enhances Bahlil’s reputation as Prabowo’s key energy stakeholder and strengthens his influence over both fossil fuel and renewable energy strategy.

It also indicates a more centralized decision-making structure, which highlights the political dimensions of energy governance.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.