Angola: Lourenco’s Succession Race Heats Up With Speaker Selection

What happened: Angola’s parliament elected Adao de Almeida as its speaker, and the Supreme Court cleared charges against members of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’s circle.

Why this matters: These developments came as political maneuvering ahead of Lourenco’s succession has accelerated, with two clear factions within the MPLA beginning to emerge.

What happens next: With Lourenco's term as MPLA leader ending in 2026 and general elections in 2027, we foresee spurned generals and the offspring of the late President Dos Santos potentially aligning to try to elect new party leadership.

Last week, the national parliament elected Minister of State and Head of the Presidency’s Civil House Adao de Almeida (see our Key Stakeholder) as its speaker. The MPLA Politburo also selected him to replace Carolina Cerqueira, also a party official, as president of the national assembly. Almeida’s term as speaker will last through the end of the legislature in 2027.

Almeida’s election represents an endorsement from the MPLA’s most senior body as the party prepares the ground for President Joao Lourenco’s succession in 2026 when his second term as MPLA leader ends. Additionally, Angola will hold general elections in 2027, where Lourenco is constitutionally barred from running. Now, Almeida is emerging as a strong candidate to succeed Lourenco as party leader and/or its presidential candidate.

Given this timeline, the MPLA chessboard pieces have been moving at an accelerated pace. In particular, the generals who held senior offices under former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and lost influence under Lourenco are maneuvering quickly. As we already assessed, General Higino Carneiro is a stand-out name, but he is not alone.

To add to the politicking, days before Almeida’s election, the Supreme Court cleared General Manuel Helder Vieira Dias (Kopelipa), who headed former President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos’s Military House, of all charges related to an investigation into corruption, fraud and other alleged crimes. The acquittal was a result of the disappearance of the documents sustaining the charges, allegedly due to a cyber-attack.

The Court also acquitted Isabel dos Santos, the self-exiled daughter of the late president, of three of the 11 crimes she was charged with while serving as head of Sonangol. After the acquittal, Isabel doubled down on claims of meddling in the judicial system and political persecution from Lourenco.

In our view, these developments show that two blocks are emerging within the MPLA. The first block supports Lourenco and counts on the backing of the Politburo, whose composition was changed over the last decade to favor the president, particularly via the promotion of younger officials.

Interestingly, Lourenco has gotten increasingly close to Bento Kangamba, one of Angola’s wealthiest citizens. Despite being 60, Kangamba is known as the “youth’s businessman” and vocally supports Lourenco. For investors, following Kangamba’s moves and public statements can provide an important gauge of youth support for Lourenco and his allies.

The second block is mostly composed of veterans and members of the dos Santos circle, but is not necessarily restricted to an older generation: Higino Carneiro and Isabel are very popular with urban youths. In our view, the likes of Carneiro, Isabel and Kopelipa will increasingly counter Lourenco’s interests; their actions will be important signposts for assessing the balance of power in the MPLA.

These will be the lines that define the power struggle around Lourenco’s succession. We believe Almeida meets the conditions to become a consensual name for a presidential candidate: He comes from a younger generation, thus appealing to a growing young electorate, and has political weight and government experience.

Against this backdrop, the most intense dispute will likely be over the MPLA leadership. Recently, the party changed its statutes to mandate that its president is no longer its automatic candidate for the presidential elections. This opens a path for an unprecedented bicephalous power structure that would enable the party leadership to influence the presidency.

Notably, Lourenco has neither rejected nor confirmed whether he will run for a new term as party president, while Carneiro already confirmed plans to run. As Lourenco told the media in July 2025, “I cannot allow the country to fall into the hands of someone random,” strongly suggesting that he will pick a successor if he cannot remain at the head of the party. Given the recent developments, we think Almeida will be his pick, though the newly elected speaker is not guaranteed to safeguard Lourenco’s interests.

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