Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week’s banner image is an indigenous person from the Pataxó ethnic group displaying their handicrafts during COP30, which ended last week without any detailed agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Lourenco’s Succession Race Heats Up With Speaker Selection

What happened: Angola’s parliament elected Adao de Almeida as its speaker, and the Supreme Court cleared charges against members of former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’s circle.

Why this matters: These developments came as political maneuvering ahead of Lourenco’s succession has accelerated, with two clear factions within the MPLA beginning to emerge.

What happens next: With Lourenco's term as MPLA leader ending in 2026 and general elections in 2027, we foresee spurned generals and the offspring of the late President Dos Santos potentially aligning to try to elect new party leadership.

Azerbaijan: Baku’s Energy Clout Meets US Assertiveness in Europe

What happened: Ukraine signed a US-backed deal to import LNG via the Vertical Corridor, reportedly sidelining cheaper Azerbaijani gas from using the same route amid US concerns about mixed gas.

Why it matters: Western investors in Azerbaijan should monitor whether US-backed energy deals in Europe hamper SOCAR’s regional expansion and affect its competitive edge in key downstream markets.

What happens next: Unless SOCAR regains momentum in deals like the stalled Burgas refinery bid, Baku may quietly recalibrate its energy alignment or double down on Turkish-linked routes.

Brazil: Lago Drives Toward Fossil Fuel Roadmap

What happened: COP30 President Andre Lago reluctantly withdrew language to phase out fossil fuels from Belem’s final document.

Why it matters: Over 80 national government delegations showed support for President Lula’s efforts to strike a deal on a phaseout, but large hydrocarbon producer nations — including Russia and Saudi Arabia — dragged out negotiations to force Lago to retreat.

What happened: Lago pledged to continue brokering between international coalitions, searching for a consensus roadmap before next year’s COP31 in Turkey.

India: US LPG Deal Will Pave Way for Trade Deal

What happened: India reached a one-year deal agreement with the US to import 2.2mn tons of liquid petroleum gas.

Why it matters: This should get New Delhi closer to the finish line on a bilateral trade deal that would reduce the 50% tariffs the Trump administration slapped on India earlier this year.

What happens next: If the agreement is extended or leads to other energy deals with Washington, India may reduce Russian oil imports.

Iraq: Sudani's Successor Being Groomed in Quick Time

What happened: The pan-Shia Coordination Framework collectively declared itself the largest bloc after the Iraqi elections, ending speculation that the bloc might splinter competitively.

Why it matters: This suggests PM Sudani has quickly accepted he won't get a second term, and he instead aims to shape his replacement.

What happens next: A less ambitious future premier is now being selected, with the aim of installing someone who will not, like Sudani, try to slip his leash.

Kazakhstan: Officials and Media Debate Future of SK Fund

What happened: The SK Fund reported strong 2024 financial results and progress on major energy and mining projects, but political debate about its future has persisted.

Why it matters: The fund is the main gateway for large energy, infrastructure and mining investments; its financial health, tariff policy and strategic direction directly influence investor risk, returns and market access.

What happens next: The key signpost is whether Akorda will support CEO Nurlan Zhakupov’s proposals to separate SK’s commercial and social functions, which will determine tariffs, dividends and future investment conditions.

Mexico: Sheinbaum Leans on Mexico’s Most Powerful Businessman

What happened: Carlos Slim held his fifth public meeting with President Sheinbaum as the administration confronts the 2026 USMCA review, weakening macroeconomic indicators and growing political friction.

Why it matters: Slim remains one of Sheinbaum’s most important private-sector bridges at a moment when the government needs business confidence, coordinated messaging, and strong allies amid uneven FDI flows, a manufacturing slowdown, and a more interventionist Supreme Court targeting some key companies.

What happens next: A key variable to watch is the configuration of the cuarto de junto mechanism, which will shape Mexico’s negotiating position ahead of the USMCA review, and the business leaders who will steer it.

Namibia: Kapofi Blocked from Fast-Tracking Key UPU Amendment

What happened: Interim Minister Kapofi sought to introduce a bill to shift key petroleum regulatory powers from his department to the Upstream Petroleum Unit in the Office of the President.

Why it matters: The amendment bill would correct legal inconsistencies, formalize the UPU’s authority and significantly reduce the ministry’s role. It should also give investors greater certainty by clarifying the regulatory framework following the establishment of the UPU.

What happens next: Kapofi’s attempt to fast-track the bill failed, so parliament will only return to it in February. For investors, the delay is not ideal, but it may allow time to strengthen and refine the legislation.

Nigeria: Tinubu’s Trump Trouble Shifts 2027 Election Calculus

What happened: Nigerian NSA Nuhu Ribadu met US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth for talks in Washington, DC.

Why it matters: The meeting came after President Donald Trump’s threat to invade Nigeria over claims of a Christian genocide, and against a backdrop of mass kidnappings in the north of the country that have undermined President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

What happens next: Relations with the US are changing the calculus around Nigeria’s 2027 elections. Tinubu may switch his VP Kashim Shettima for a Christian running mate, while the opposition ADC is leaning into Trump’s rhetoric in hopes of support from the US Christian right.

Suriname: The Buzzword of the Year and the Battle for the Next Oil Decade

What happened: President Simons quietly installed a new Local Content Board packed with NDP loyalists as a high-profile Local Content Conference called for a unified, nationally owned framework to turn offshore projects into broad-based prosperity.

Why it matters: The clash between party-driven appointments, coalition resentment and growing pressure for Guyana-style quotas sharply raises above-ground risk for IECs.

What happens next: We expect 2026 to be dominated by a heated struggle over the shape of local content law, which will directly affect timelines, costs and reputational exposure for foreign investors.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

American Chamber of Commerce in Angola (AmCham Angola) President Pedro Godinho presented his autobiography titled To Quit is Not an Option. During the presentation, Godinho discussed the challenges he faced, including in overcoming bureaucratic obstacles since the 1980s, in a business environment that has always been heavily politicized.

Godinho also stressed the need to ensure that authorities are able to keep highly qualified young people in the country, as it would strengthen Angola's potential. In our view, Godinho's book reinforces his reputation as one of the few - or even the only - businesspeople willing to speak out against politics and decision-making.

Journalist and economist Carlos Rosado de Carvalho even praised Godinho’s courage, saying it is rare for businesspeople to speak openly about business and the economy in general. We expect this will boost Godinho’s credibility and reputation with civil society at large, ranging from a growing youth demographic to private businesses.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.