Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week’s banner image is of the Al-Shaheed Monument in Baghdad, an emblem of Iraq’s national identity at a moment when its upcoming elections are drawing intense attention from Gulf capitals.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: US Trade Framework Advances Milei’s Vision of a Commoditized Argentina

What happened: The Trump administration announced a framework trade deal with Argentina after bailing out the Milei administration ahead of the October midterms.

Why it matters: The agreement encourages investment in natural resources from US firms but will likely trigger pushback from the manufacturing sector.

What happens next: The final deal will take months to finalize; lobbying on both sides will seek to influence the outcome.

Azerbaijan: Jalilov Appointment Reshapes Investor Outlook for Nakhchivan

What happened: President Aliyev appointed the young and Jabbarov-backed technocrat Jeyhun Jalilov as his new representative in NAR, replacing Fuad Najafli.

Why it matters: Jalilov's elevation signals intensified central control over NAR and a stronger push to align fiscal incentives, energy projects and mining activity with priorities that are increasingly relevant for foreign investors.

What happens next: The key signpost is whether political conditions in Armenia allow progress on Zangezur and TRIPP corridors, since Jalilov’s ability to deliver investor-friendly transformation will depend heavily on stable transit routes.

Guyana: Ali Prioritizes Monetizing Gas to Transform Berbice

What happened: President Irfaan Ali hosted the Berbice Development Summit and announced that he would be prioritizing the monetization of the country’s gas resources before the end of 2030.

Why it matters: While the government is happy with accelerated oil production, it is also keen to maximize the added value of the country’s gas reserves.

What happens next: We expect multiple investment opportunities to open up, but Ali will be impatient with investors who do not get on board with his vision.

Iran: New US Sanctions Target Military Industry Over Energy

What happened: New US sanctions on Iran targeted missile chemical precursors, not the energy sector. New energy measures will likely follow as negotiations remain off-track.

Why it matters: Iran’s oil export volumes are stable and modestly rising, even as oil revenues are falling. The combination of fiscal shortfalls and recurrent drought will force a tighter fiscal policy, including potential and unpopular price increases in domestic fuel prices.

What happens next: New import quotas for China’s teapots and US enforcement intent will shape Iran’s energy output.

Iraq: Gulf Split Over Sudani's Reappointment

What happened: All the Gulf States adopted a non-committal posture after Iraq’s elections, demonstrating a wait-and-see approach to intra-Shiite coalition-building.

Why it matters: If Saudi Arabia or the UAE lean heavily into a candidate for the premiership, that man is probably marked for success, not due to Gulf backing but because they tend to read the tea leaves slightly before others do.

What happens next: A Sudani second term could be torpedoed by MBS during the forthcoming White House visit if the Saudi crown prince is animated enough about Sudani’s pro-militia and pro-Iran leanings.

Malaysia: Sabah’s Election Promises Only Volatility

What happened: Sabahans go to the polls on 29 November in a four-bloc free-for-all where no one expects an outright winner.

Why it matters: The outcome will determine whether PM Anwar gets a cooperative ally in Hajiji/GRS to co-manage the 40% entitlement and Petronas joint ventures, or a more confrontational Sabah-first government that reopens every bargain.

What happens next: Whatever the vote tally, post-election dealmaking will decide who governs Sabah. Hajiji remains Anwar’s preference, Masidi may be a compromise, but really, everyone is in play.

Mozambique: Chapo Appoints Outspoken Anti-Corruption Judge to Judicial Council

What happened: President Daniel Chapo picked Judge Augusto Paulino to sit on the Superior Council of the Judiciary, the justice system’s watchdog.

Why it matters: Chapo appointed Paulino, an outspoken critic of political meddling, as he seeks to increase his influence in Frelimo. Paulino has also criticized energy sector contracts with perceived unbalanced benefits.

What happens next: Paulino’s appointment will strengthen Chapo’s push to renegotiate contracts and ensure greater domestic benefits from large projects.

Turkey: Massive Indictment Against Imamoglu Is Also Shot at Wider Opposition, Will Increase Polarization

What happened: Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek unveiled a massive indictment against Ekrem Imamoglu, seeking a cumulative sentence of up to 2,352 years in prison.

Why it matters: The indictment is largely political and appears designed to neutralize both Imamoglu and his CHP party, with hints made toward its dissolution.

What happens next: Imamoglu is effectively sidelined in the short term. Ozgur Ozel is now the most likely CHP candidate against Erdogan. Government pressure on the opposition will intensify.

Yemen: ROYG’s New Package Advances Reforms but Could Spark Unrest

What happened: The Yemeni government approved a major economic reform plan that ordered the deposit of all government revenues in its central bank and the closure of several unofficial ports, and announced its intention to liberalize the customs dollar.

Why it matters: The decrees address several key aspects of Yemen’s financial and import sectors, and have the potential to both strengthen the ROYG’s position and exacerbate political instability in the short to mid-term.

What happens next: We foresee an uneven implementation of the reform package, resulting in some increases to the ROYG’s financial position but also increased prices and associated unrest.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Angolan Speaker of the National Assembly, Adao Almeida

Interior Minister Manuel Homem congratulated Adao de Almeida on social media for his confirmation as parliamentary speaker. Homem said the move was important for the younger generation of Angolans.

Interestingly, Almeida responded promptly, thanking Homem for the congratulations. Almeida does not have a big presence on social media, underlining the importance of this response.

In our view, the interaction hints at the strong relationship between the two officials. It also strengthens our belief that Almeida is increasingly well-positioned to be Joao Lourenco's pick to succeed him as MPLA chief in 2026 and perhaps also take the party's presidential nominations.

Homem’s post appeared to be part of efforts to maintain his strong relations with Almeida and he seems likely to be picked for a senior role in the state or the party apparatus if Almeida does get the ‘promotion.’

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.