Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is Kazakhstan President Kassim-Schomart Tokayev, whose November visits to Washington and Moscow highlighted Kazakhstan’s shifting diplomatic balance.

Country Insights Roundup

Azerbaijan: Baku’s Confident Regional Posture Seeks to Appeal to Investors

What happened: The government utilized the Victory Day parade and President Aliyev’s follow-up science speech to showcase a modern, disciplined military and political leadership, as well as a long-term pivot toward technology, cooperation and connectivity.

Why it matters: This blend of hard security credibility, regional alliances and investment in renewables, logistics and critical minerals positions Azerbaijan as a central, relatively reliable corridor for long-horizon Western energy and infrastructure capital.

What happens next: Turning its agenda into concrete projects, continuing Armenia talks and maintaining Caspian stability would confirm Baku's role as a rule-shaper, not a rule-taker.

Brazil: Boulos Leads Lula’s Ground Game

What happened: General Secretary of the Presidency Guilherme Boulos made a splash at COP30’s Global Youth Plenary by promoting natural resource nationalism.

Why it matters: Appointed by President Lula last month, he will take the administration’s economic populism on the road, coordinating social movements with next year’s re-election campaign.

What happens next: We expect Boulos, one of the most influential leaders on the left, to seek to fire up Lula’s base by appealing to greater public investments in housing and transportation.

Canada: Carney Doubles Down on Buy Canadian, Nation-Building Megaprojects

What happened: Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a “Buy Canadian” procurement strategy and is ready to unveil the next tranche of federal Major Projects.

Why it matters: Participation in these projects will depend on including Canadian content.

What happens next: The 14 November announcement will spotlight critical minerals mining, hydrogen and LNG export infrastructure, but is not expected to include Alberta’s pitch for a new crude oil pipeline.

Iraqi Kurdistan: The Governors of Kurdistan

What happened: Ahead of Kurdistan government formation, the role of governors is getting more scrutiny as fresh faces are readied to be rotated into the cabinet.

Why it matters: Governors can facilitate logistical needs and project implementation; IECs often deal with them and may be able to leverage those relationships if they become ministers.

What happens next: We expect that Erbil’s governorship will change hands to a Masrour loyalist, and that incumbent Imed Khoshnaw will be bumped up to a KDP-allocated cabinet role.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev’s US Trip Outshines Moscow Visit

What happened: Tokayev’s November visits to Washington and Moscow highlighted Kazakhstan’s shifting balance, with the US trip yielding over $17bn in concrete energy, mining, and infrastructure deals and the Moscow one producing mostly ceremonial declarations.

Why it matters: The Washington outcomes confirm that Kazakhstan is deepening ties with the US through strategic resource partnerships and industrial localization, signaling reduced dependence on Russian-linked projects.

What happens next: Astana will likely prioritize US-backed critical mineral ventures while carefully managing Moscow’s sensitivities, with upcoming steps on Lukoil’s Kazakh assets offering a key signpost to watch.

Mexico: Gonzalez Holds the Line on USMCA

What happened: The Energy Ministry pushed back against US accusations of USMCA violations after US industry groups and lawmakers renewed pressure over market access and regulatory certainty.

Why it matters: The criticism strengthens calls for expanded investor-state dispute settlement, especially as Mexico’s judicial overhaul erodes confidence in domestic remedies and raises new concerns about oversight after eliminating independent energy regulators.

What happens next: We expect managed friction, not escalation, similar to 2022, when the USTR opened consultations but stepped back due to political reasons. In 2026, political timing and mutual pragmatism will again set clear limits on how far either side pushes.

Russia: Taganrog Electrical Failure Exposes Competing Energy Investment Agendas

What happened: A Rostov city lost power for several hours after a high-voltage line was shut down, reportedly triggered by a fire at a transformer substation.

Why it matters: The outage tests the Kremlin’s capacity to govern and preserve a sense of normalcy despite major systemic stress from the Ukraine invasion. It also exposes tensions within Russia’s energy governance system, where responsibility for grid operations overlaps with industrial policy.

What happens next: In the short term, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov and Rosseti South chief Aleksei Rybin, will focus on restoring power supply. Over the longer term, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov’s industrial-technological network will challenge Novak for control over budget flows, technical standard setting and contract allocation.

Suriname: President's Climate Crusade Meets Suriname’s Oil Ambitions

What happened: President Simons was named one of Time’s 100 Climate Leaders of 2025 as Suriname launched its NDC 3.0 and formally aligned oil development with climate goals.

Why it matters: The government is reframing its energy policy, using future oil revenues to finance climate resilience. This signals a more predictable and sustainability-driven investment climate.

What happens next: The rollout of local content development and environmental frameworks, along with upcoming offshore production, will test whether Simons’ administration can balance first oil ambitions with its carbon-negative commitments.

United States: SCOTUS Tariffs Ruling Will Have Limited Impact on Resource Investments

What happened: The Supreme Court expressed skepticism about President Trump’s use of executive powers to impose tariffs under the IEEPA regulations.

Why it matters: The SCOTUS decision (due next year) would impact which tariffs are legitimate; it could perpetuate trade flow volatility and lead to slower investment outlays, although energy and related resource trade are exempt from IEEPA tariffs.

What happens next: The Trump administration is already preparing alternative tariff approaches to maintain the revenue and national security goals achieved through tariffs.

United States: Shutdown Ends but Leaves Democrats in a Bind

What happened: The US government finally reopened after a deal struck by eight Democratic senators.

Why it matters: This deal ends the longest federal government shutdown in history, but leaves the Democratic Party at a loss over what its strategy should be when the current funding runs out in January.

What happens next: The most likely scenario is that there will not be another shutdown, which is good news for investors worried about permitting and other government actions that could be impacted.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Sonatrach CEO Rachid Hachichi

Sonatrach CEO Rachid Hachichi addressed attendees at the opening ceremony of NAPEC, the Algerian energy sector's annual conference in Oran, after surviving a last-minute plan to replace him.

According to contacts, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has grown weary of Hachichi's leadership of the state petroleum firm, recently describing him as "incompetent" to aides. Hachichi was scheduled to hand the reins to a replacement at a ceremony yesterday afternoon.

But the ceremony was canceled at the last minute, as Tebboune and senior military leaders failed to reach an agreement on a successor. Presidential energy advisor and former Sonatrach CEO Amine Mazouzi, former ALNAFT boss Noureddine Daoudi and Djamal Cherdoud, head of Sonatrach fuel distribution subsidiary Naftal, were among those reportedly vetted by security services as possible replacements. Industry contacts who spoke to Horizon Engage expressed worry that Hachichi's dismissal could derail ongoing negotiations with Sonatrach.

Hachichi served as interim Sonatrach CEO for several months in 2019. Appointed to his second tour two years ago with the expectation that he would again serve only briefly, Hachichi continues to beat the odds. But doing so thanks to disarray among senior leaders rather than his own competence signals that he is likely in his last months in office.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.