Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Argentinian President Javier Milei, whose La Liberta Avanza party won over 40% of the votes in the weekend's midterms, putting him in a strong position for the second half of his term in office.

Country Insights Roundup

Argentina: Surprising Midterm Victory Opens New Era for Milei

What happened: President Javier Milei’s ruling La Libertad Avanza party won a commanding victory in the midterm elections with more than 40% of the votes.

Why it matters: The result largely exceeded the government’s own expectations, leaving Milei in a stronger position for the second half of his term.

What happens next: Milei still needs to change some of his political ways and economic policies to consolidate his administration, but a clear path has opened for an eventual 2027 reelection.

Canada: Trade Talks Freeze After Ontario’s Controversial Ad

What happened: The province of Ontario aired a provocative television advertisement that prompted US President Donald Trump to call off trade talks with Canada.

Why it matters: The Canadian government was hoping to strike a deal to reduce tariffs on steel and aluminum and restart talks on the Keystone pipeline.

What happens next: Talks are now frozen and may not restart before the end of the year, as US officials are decidedly cold on Canadian efforts to do so.

Indonesia: Production Milestone is Short-Term Victory but Poses Long-Term Questions

What happened: Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia announced that oil lifting will surpass this year's government target of 605,000 bpd.

Why it matters: Indonesia has struggled for many years to meet its upstream production and lifting targets, so the reported milestone sends a positive signal of operational improvement and a delivery push.

What happens next: The government will continue to push upstream reforms — including faster licensing and new exploration blocks — to sustain the production momentum.

Kazakhstan: Parliamentary Reform Referendum to Set Stage for Managed Succession

What happened: Kazakhstan plans to transition to a unicameral parliament, where members will be elected by party lists, while retaining single-district voting for maslikhats.

Why it matters: This signals swifter lawmaking with fewer veto points, a party-dominated e-Parliament, tighter control from Akorda and policy predictability in exchange for weaker regional accountability and transparency.

What happens next: We expect a staged path to a 2027 referendum and the accumulation of powers by the Speaker and/or Amanat leader while succession architecture is tested through 2029 and early successor rumors probe elite loyalties.

Nigeria: Tinubu Switches Up Service Chiefs After Failed Coup Claims

What happened: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu reshuffled Nigeria’s service chiefs, appointing Lt. Gen. Olufemi Oluyede as his chief of defense staff and naming new heads of the army, navy and air force.

Why it matters: The changes came the week after reports emerged of an unconfirmed and failed coup plot and lend weight to talk that there was a move against Tinubu in the works.

What happens next: Tinubu will improve conditions for the military to stamp out lingering dissent as 2027 election campaigning continues, while simultaneously using the army and police to suppress opposition activity.

Russia: Divestment Challenges, Exemption Watch

What happened: Last week’s US and EU sanctions on Russian energy giants set off calls for sanctions exemptions for foreign projects in which Rosneft and Lukoil are involved.

Why it matters: Although foreign subsidiaries of the sanctioned Russian energy majors were not directly added to the US SDN list, those with more than a 50% stake are exposed, and even projects with lower holdings will face more scrutiny from global banks, which could impair financing and slow down progress.

What happens next: The US government shutdown will impair the scramble for exemptions, and government-government lobbying alongside trade talks may result in some additional general licenses.

South Korea: A Shift in Decarbonization Strategy?

What happened: South Korea’s 2025 CHPS auction was abruptly canceled, sending shockwaves through the energy sector.

Why it matters: The cancellation signals a decisive policy pivot away from ammonia-cofiring (particularly with coal) and conflicts with the 2040 coal phase-out, reshaping Korea’s decarbonization roadmap.

What happens next: A re-bid by late 2025 will likely exclude coal co-firing, focus on LNG-based hydrogen with CCS and tighten clean hydrogen standards.

Suriname: Can the New Oil and Gas Ministry Build the Muscle for First Oil?

What happened: Suriname’s new Ministry of Oil, Gas and Environment has finally received its formal mandate, centralizing oversight of energy, oil and environmental policy.

Why it matters: The move exposes growing tension between Staatsolie’s technocrats and political appointees as the Simons administration tightens control over oil governance and local content policy.

What happens next: A new local content framework and commission will test whether Oil and Gas Minister Patrick Brunings, Staatsolie CEO Annand Jagesar and Supervisory Chair Rudolf Elias can maintain institutional balance — or if they will succumb to political gravity.

Turkey: Northern Cyprus Elections Signal Break from Ankara

What happened: Tufan Erhurman's decisive victory in Northern Cyprus breaks Ankara’s two-state dominance and signals renewed local autonomy, forcing Turkey to moderate its stance on Cyprus after years of control.

Why it matters: Ankara’s measured reaction suggests it may leverage this shift to reopen channels with the EU, ease regional tensions and regain access to key regional programs.

What happens next: The election outcome lowers the near-term geopolitical risk in the East Med, improving the climate for cross-border energy, LNG and infrastructure investment.

Yemen: Shabwah Plant Approvals Highlight Emirati Energy Dominance in Southern Yemen

What happened: Shabwah Gov. Awadh al-Awlaqi announced UAE government approval for the construction of three gas-fired power plants, including a 60 MW plant under development at Balhaf.

Why it matters: The facilities are only the latest of several Emirati investments in Yemen’s electricity grid, which achieve multiple Emirati political and economic objectives.

What happens next: We expect these objectives to continue driving UAE state investment in south Yemen into the long term, with engaged renewables investors potentially able to capture some of this investment by partnering with Emirati national champions.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Argentinian President Javier Milei

Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party won more than 40% of the votes in Argentina's midterm elections in a surprising comeback after growing concerns about a devaluation and corruption scandals.

The result sets up Milei to push his agenda. His party has enough seats to protect presidential decrees and vetoes. He will also likely be able to stitch together a legislative majority to push through reforms.

In our view, the biggest risk now, given his personality, is overconfidence that blinds him to needed policy course corrections.

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These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.