Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

Given a number of reports in this week's edition are centered around the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, this week's banner image is of him being transported to the US aboard the USS Iwo Jima.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Lourenco's Venezuela Problem

What happened: Neither President Joao Lourenco nor any government official has issued a formal statement on US operations in Venezuela despite long-standing relations with the latter.

Why it matters: The silence suggests that Lourenco is assessing his options and trying to avoid hindering bilateral ties with the Trump administration, which could disturb support for the Lobito Corridor project and IEC operations.

What happens next: Any eventual response will be very diplomatic to avoid creating tension. In the meantime, we expect foreign policy to become an important element of the MPLA internal election in 2026, fostering deep divisions that Russia and China may seek to take advantage of.

Greece: Committed to Gas

What happened: Another failed capacity auction on the Vertical Corridor and renewed scrutiny by European regulators seemingly threaten to put the brakes on the flow of US LNG to Ukraine.

Why it matters: After the exuberance of the Athens P-TEC forum and talk of a new energy architecture for the region with Greece as gatekeeper, the development suggests that the ambitious geopolitical initiatives have yet to overcome commercial realities.

What happens next: Most of the involved parties in Athens view the latest turn of events as a temporary setback, with the political leadership aligning itself increasingly with Washington while domestic business interests line up for a slice of the pie.

India: India Will Win Big if Venezuela Sanctions are Dropped

What happened: The Venezuela crisis could bring significant energy benefits to India, depending on how it plays out.

Why it matters: If US sanctions are removed, India could benefit from major increases in crude supply; Indian private energy giants could make large profits from refining heavy Venezuelan crude; and New Delhi’s oil import diversification goals would be boosted.

What happens next: With limited diplomatic access in Caracas, we expect Indian officials to remain silent until there is more clarity on Venezuela's trajectory.

Iran: New Wave of Protests Rocks the Country

What happened: Sparked by a targeted shopkeepers’ walkout, protests have swept Iran for ten days — and met violent or deadly force.

Why it matters: The protests reinforce ongoing bottom-up challenges to the state’s authority and legitimacy, while exacerbating Iran’s geostrategic problems.

What happens next: Barring a US military intervention, we expect the protests to ebb and flow for several weeks but ultimately be contained through repression and tactical appeasement.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Signals Near-Term Policy Continuity

What happened: President Tokayev gave a carefully orchestrated interview with useful messages for investors for 2026, combining tax moderation, market-based tariff reform, nuclear and rare earth ambitions and a forthcoming constitutional referendum.

Why it matters: For investors, this signals near-term policy continuity and larger financeable pipelines in power, mining and infrastructure, alongside higher cost realism, tighter discipline and persistent Russia-linked political risk.

What happens next: Key signposts to watch are the drafting and timing of the constitutional referendum, concrete nuclear and rare earth project announcements, and whether Nazarbayev-Moscow optics trigger tighter controls or elite pushback.

Libya: Death of GNU Army Chief of Staff Still Creating Ripples

What happened: Rumors continue to swirl after the December air crash in Turkey that killed Mohammed Haddad, the GNU’s army chief of staff.

Why it matters: The crash and subsequent uncertainty have stirred tension in Misrata, home to Haddad and PM Dabaiba.

What happens next: The Haftar camp will likely capitalize on the sensitivities of the current moment amid sporadic protests in western Libya, which pose a challenge to the GNU.

Mexico: Implications from Maduro's Capture

What happened: President Sheinbaum and former President AMLO responded differently to the US capture of Nicolas Maduro.

Why it matters: Despite rising speculation, we do not foresee US military action in Mexico. We expect US pressure on Mexico to intensify through calibrated channels, particularly security cooperation, corruption enforcement and the USMCA review, rather than through force.

What happens next: Sheinbaum will need to tread carefully in a pivotal year for the bilateral relationship. A key signpost to watch is any credible move against politically exposed figures linked to organized crime, a step that may strengthen ties with Washington.

Namibia: Why Trump’s Pick for Namibia Matters

What happened: Trump appointed loyalist John Giordano as US ambassador to Namibia, signaling a more assertive US commercial and strategic interest in the country.

Why it matters: Giordano’s attempts to push Trump’s political and economic agenda may clash with Namibia’s rigid foreign policy positions, including its close ties to Venezuela and Cuba.

What happens next: The risk of public disagreement or behind-the-scenes tension between Giordano and the government – including President NNN — is real. Any friction could harden official attitudes towards Western, particularly US, investors.

Russia: Oil Tax Adjustment

What happened: Facing discounts on Urals crude and a weaker price environment, the government has recently introduced temporary adjustments to the Mineral Extraction Tax. The relief will be applied selectively across firms based on opaque technical and commercial considerations.

Why it matters: The decision reflects Putin’s priority to keep production and exports stable. Large producers with scale and political access, most notably Rosneft, will benefit. The policy also increases strain in the regions, particularly refining hubs, where governors must manage economic and social tensions with limited means.

What happens next: Sechin and Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev will seek to make this favorable tax structure permanent.

Vietnam: Record Electricity Revenue, but Country Demands More

What happened: State utility EVN reported $26bn in revenue in 2025, up 10% from the previous year, though new generation capacity added just 6.4 GW — less than a third of the 21.5 GW targeted under PDP8.

Why it matters: The yawning gap between supply and demand threatens Vietnam's manufacturing-led growth model, with electricity consumption rising only 4.9% against 8% GDP growth.

What happens next: We expect the post-Party Congress leadership to roll out aggressive investment incentives to crowd in private capital for power development.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Chinese First Secretary Cai Qi delivered a speech at the National Propaganda Work Conference, calling for stronger propaganda mechanisms to guide public opinion. He also urged further embedding “Xi Thought,” tightening control over online narratives, and better leveraging Chinese culture for both domestic cohesion and international messaging.

Although the official readout largely echoed Cai’s previous statements, it underscores the growing centrality of ideological control and Cai’s role as the chief architect.

With Xi Jinping intensifying internal loyalty demands alongside rising public dissatisfaction and increasingly negative online discourse, Cai’s political weight continues to rise.

The quid pro quo will be to deliver tangible gains in ideological discipline and public compliance.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive reporting - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.