Welcome to this week's On Our Radar, our summary of developments from the past week that will have a significant impact on emerging markets, and, crucially, exactly why they are relevant to foreign investors.

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Horizon Engage Interactive services - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.

This week's banner image is of Angola's President Joao Lourenco, who features in our Country Insights Roundup.

Country Insights Roundup

Angola: Lourenco Finds Opportunity in Russian Propaganda Efforts

What happened: Angolan authorities arrested two Russian nationals linked to Africa Politology, a Wagner-affiliated propaganda outfit. The detentions followed civil unrest over fuel prices, which President Lourenco blamed on foreign interference. The arrests serve as a political lever amid growing internal dissent and ahead of the MPLA’s leadership transition.

Why it matters: Lourenco’s use of foreign scapegoats heightens risks for external actors perceived as aligned with opposition forces. While Western entities may remain insulated, rising political sensitivity and targeted crackdowns add uncertainty. Vigilant monitoring of associations and narratives will be crucial as Angola edges toward its 2027 electoral transition.

Argentina: Major Corruption Scandal Hits at the Heart of Milei's Inner Circle

What happened: Leaked audio recordings implicated Karina Milei, the president’s sister and chief of staff, in a kickback scheme linked to disability benefit contracts. The tapes, involving former official Diego Spagnuolo, have triggered a judicial investigation, casting serious doubt on the administration's anti-corruption image ahead of October’s midterm elections.

Why it matters: Although unlikely to sway voters significantly in the short term, the scandal weakens Milei’s political capital and complicates the passage of contentious economic reforms. It also deepens governance risks, undermining transparency and stability - two factors closely watched by markets as Argentina seeks to meet IMF targets and attract investment.

Cote d'Ivoire: Burkinabe Influencer's Death Increases Risks of Civil Unrest and Fake News Campaigns

What happened: Burkinabe influencer Alino Faso died in police custody in Abidjan, triggering public outrage and escalating tensions between Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. While Ivorian authorities claim it was suicide, widespread belief foul play was involved has spurred funeral rallies, official investigations, and growing diplomatic friction between the neighbouring states.

Why it matters: Faso’s death may fuel protests, retaliatory border incidents, and fake news campaigns targeting Cote d’Ivoire’s October elections. Social unrest and xenophobic narratives could disrupt operations, particularly in Abidjan. Heightened scrutiny of online discourse and shifting public sentiment will be essential as the risk of politically driven instability rises.

Greece: ELVO Sale to Israeli Group Meets Domestic Backlash

What happened: The Greek government’s sale of state-owned defense firm ELVO to Israel’s SK Group has provoked sharp criticism from opposition parties and civil society. The backlash comes amid rising public discontent over Athens’ close alignment with Israel during the Gaza conflict, pressuring the government to recalibrate its foreign policy rhetoric.

Why it matters: The deal highlights Greece’s commitment to strategic ties with Israel, which are essential for defense and infrastructure collaboration. However, increasing domestic opposition could strain bilateral relations, impacting joint projects and investor confidence. Rising political risk may complicate the execution of cross-border ventures, especially those reliant on sustained diplomatic coordination.

Guyana: Ali Likely to Squeak Through to Second Term

What happened: Guyana will hold pivotal general elections on 1 September. President Ali and the ruling PPP are expected to retain power, but likely by a narrow margin. Control of vast oil revenues and the direction of national development hang in the balance, with the PPP pushing a high-spending, investment-driven agenda.

Why it matters: The outcome will shape oil policy, fiscal terms, and contract stability for years. A PPP victory suggests continuity but risks creeping authoritarianism and rising inequality. A divided or opposition-controlled parliament could demand more transparency and contract renegotiations, increasing uncertainty but potentially improving governance and institutional accountability in the medium term.

Kazakhstan: Kulibayev Balances Expansion and State Pressure

What happened: Timur Kulibayev expanded his energy and financial ventures by launching drilling at Sulutaban, investing in a ski resort, and acquiring a major Uzbek fintech stake through Halyk Bank. Meanwhile, state pressure persists on Nazarbayev-linked elites, with land seizures, asset losses, and dividend suspensions highlighting the government’s tightening grip.

Why it matters: Kulibayev’s ongoing operations signal that key oligarchs remain influential, though under stricter state oversight. Asset consolidation, selective regional growth, and avoidance of political roles reflect a cautious adaptation to Tokayev’s agenda. Investors should expect more regulated partnerships, less opaque elite control, and a focus on state-approved economic alignment.

Malaysia: Court Ready to Settle Petronas-Petros Dispute

What happened: A pivotal court case between Petronas and Sarawak’s Petros over LNG distribution was delayed after a joint request for more negotiation time. The dispute hinges on whether federal or state laws govern gas rights in Sarawak, raising constitutional and fiscal stakes that neither side has yet managed to resolve.

Why it matters: If unresolved, judicial intervention could trigger lasting uncertainty over Malaysia’s energy governance. A Sarawak win risks reducing Petronas’s revenue base, weakening Malaysia’s fiscal position. The outcome may reshape investment terms and regulatory clarity for hydrocarbon assets in Sarawak, with wider implications for federal-state economic relations and energy sector stability.

Russia: Novatek CEO's Star Shines Brighter Despite Sanctions

What happened: Despite Western sanctions, Novatek CEO Leonid Mikhelson is continuing Arctic LNG 2 shipments east via the Northern Sea Route, while expanding the Murmansk LNG project. Political influence remains intact, highlighted by the appointment of Putin’s son-in-law to a key Novatek role, as well as Kremlin support for strategic infrastructure plans.

Why it matters: Sanctions are impeding Novatek’s shipping capacity and market access, but Mikhelson’s closeness to Putin is protecting his position. Novatek will likely remain central in Moscow’s future U.S. engagement efforts. For global energy players, the firm’s evolving export strategies and state-backed resilience merit close attention, particularly if geopolitical dynamics shift.

South Africa: Nersa, TNPA Sign MoU to Align Licensing and Operations

What happened: South Africa’s energy regulator Nersa and the national ports authority TNPA signed a 10-year MoU to streamline LNG and petroleum licensing and operations. The agreement establishes new workstreams and steering committees aimed at unlocking stalled infrastructure projects and aligning development with national energy strategies.

Why it matters: The MoU improves institutional coordination, potentially reducing delays in LNG project approvals. However, legal challenges, policy inconsistency, and leadership uncertainty continue to hamper progress. Regulatory clarity remains contingent on forthcoming court rulings and the release of key national plans, posing risks for timelines and investment returns in South Africa’s gas sector.

South Korea: New Growth Strategy Prioritizes Decarbonization

What happened: South Korea unveiled its first economic growth strategy centered on decarbonization. It launched six projects to scale renewables, green hydrogen, and grid modernization. The plan integrates emissions trading, smart grids, and green finance, while targeting net-zero by 2050. Key technologies include offshore wind, small modular reactors, and blockchain-based carbon markets.

Why it matters: The strategy opens new markets for clean tech, grid infrastructure, and climate finance. Strong incentives and policy clarity support large-scale deployment, though costs may rise under tighter carbon regulations. Investment opportunities span hydrogen, SMRs, HVDC systems, and satellite tech, but political resistance and implementation risks may shape long-term viability.

Stakeholder Influence Tracker

Suriname's Speaker of the National Assembly: Ashwin Adhin

Speaker of the National Assembly, Ashwin Adhin, announced in an interview that he will introduce a new “Governance Code” aimed at ensuring good and transparent governance in Suriname.

He stressed that such codes are common across the region and should align with international standards from the OAS, Caricom, IMF, and World Bank.

If seen through to fruition, the proposed law would have a far-reaching impact. It would establish clear rules on responsibilities and competencies for political and supervisory positions, while also supporting broader efforts like anti-corruption measures and open-government legislation.

If realized, it would boost the NDP’s credibility and reinforce President Jennifer Simons’ leadership. In the near-term, such promises buttress the government’s push for transparency and accountability while burnishing Adhin’s public profile.

Find Out More

These summaries are taken from excerpts of our Country Insights and Engage Interactive products - if you would like to receive our full reporting and analysis from our team of regional experts and former ambassadors on any of these developments, please click here for more information.