South Africa: Orange Basin Offshore Opportunity Can Help Unlock South African Exploration

What happened: The government publicly appreciated the opportunity presented by Namibia’s offshore exploration in the Orange Basin.

Why it matters: Positive offshore progress in Namibia will maintain pressure on the South African government to unlock exploration.

What happens next: While cordial bilateral relations will be key to project implementation, joint infrastructure projects will be slow to materialize.

At the 4th South Africa-Namibia Binational Commission on 17 July, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the government appreciates the opportunity presented by offshore exploration in the Orange Basin. However, there remains a considerable gap between his ambition to establish an integrated regional energy economy and the project pipeline.

Ramaphosa's suggestion that South Africa continue to explore the potential of its own offshore resources also failed to acknowledge the ongoing delays caused by legal challenges to environmental authorizations. Still, it is clear that the positive progress in Namibia’s offshore will continue to provide energy investors with a useful point of engagement.

Ramaphosa congratulated Namibia on its remarkable discoveries and said that there was a compelling case for closer collaboration given the shared geology between the two countries. He argued that developments in Namibia were not only an opportunity for oil and gas production but also for establishing an integrated regional energy economy spanning exploration, refining, logistics and manufacturing.

Kudu Gas

While Ramaphosa and Namibian President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah affirmed the strategic importance of energy cooperation, the only project the Commission cited was the Kudu Gas Power Project. Kudu has struggled to progress over several decades, but there has recently been renewed effort to bring it to implementation.

There is still relatively little discussion in South Africa over what the Namibian discoveries might mean for South Africa itself. The focus is largely on developments on the eastern side of the country, where LNG infrastructure plans for Richards Bay are slowly progressing despite the rapidly approaching “gas cliff.” Furthermore, while South Africa represents a reasonable offtake market, Namibia is keen to develop projects that benefit its domestic industrialization.

Local Shift

This may be starting to change. On 3 June, prominent lawyers Patrick Kauta (Namibia) and Shereef Martin (South Africa) published a piece suggesting that gas commercialization was the missing link in Namibia’s oil story.

The Industrial Gas Users Association of South Africa picked up on this message and noted that its Gas Roadmap 2025–2042 includes gas from the West Coast as part of the post-2030 supply mix. It has penciled in a 2030 West Coast Gas FID, compared to 2027 for Richards Bay, underscoring the need for accelerated planning and implementation.

Orange Basin

Amb. Tebogo Seokolo (see Featured Personality), co-chair of the South Africa-Namibia Bi-National Commission Senior Officials' Meeting in Pretoria on 14-15 July, pre-empted Ramaphosa’s message with a call for deeper energy and mining cooperation between the two countries, which could result in a regional energy corridor. Seokolo highlighted the Orange Basin discoveries as a priority area and pointed to the shared geological features across the borders.

Boegoebaai

While the communique acknowledges Kudu, progress on another project will provide an important signal of South Africa’s appetite for broader infrastructure development towards the Namibian border. Plans for a deepwater port at Boegoebaai in the Northern Cape province, serviced by a new 550km rail line, are advancing, though timelines remain uncertain.

Boegoebaai aims to be South Africa’s green hydrogen hub. Sasol and the state-owned Industrial Development Corporation are leading a green hydrogen feasibility study, while Infrastructure South Africa indicated that the successful bidder for the port development tender will be announced in H1 2027.

Three consortia have been shortlisted. However, project delays are likely, especially in light of potential political shifts as the 2029 national elections near and ongoing legal challenges to major tender awards.