Kuwait: Consulate Storming Highlights Persistent Militia Threat to Kuwait

What happened: An unknown rocket attack in southern Iraq, allegedly launched from the direction of Kuwait, resulted in PMF-backed protesters storming the Kuwaiti consulate in Basra.

Why it matters: Coming after several Iraqi militia attacks on the emirate as part of the Iran war, the storming highlights the militias’ long-running threat to Kuwait, separate from the conflict.

What happens next: We do not expect this threat to subside even over the long term, with Iraqi militia antipathies toward Kuwait posing unique security threats related to the Iran war in the short term.

On 7 April, multiple rockets struck a house near Basra in southern Iraq, killing three civilians. In response, amid unverified claims that the attack was a US-Israeli operation originating from Kuwait, hundreds of protestors waving Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) flags gathered outside Kuwait’s consulate in Basra, with dozens eventually scaling the compound’s fence to pull down the Kuwaiti flag and raise PMF banners.

Coming after a month of Iraqi militia attacks against Kuwait in the Iran war, the storming of the Basra consulate is part of a much longer history of anti-Kuwait sentiment among Iraq’s pro-Iran militias. Drawing on Iraqi nationalist claims that sometimes even deny Kuwait’s right to exist, these groups regularly use the country as a target to rally their supporters, most recently via the Iraq-Kuwait maritime border dispute.

Even if the Iran conflict comes to a sustainable conclusion, this history means we do not foresee these antipathies disappearing. More importantly, it also means investors in Kuwait face unique short-term security threats. Kuwait’s shared border with Iraq means ground incursions into northern Kuwait remain a possibility, and Mubarak al-Kabir port’s location on the disputed Khor Abdullah makes it a desirable target.

While the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a two-week suspension in operations on 8 April due to the US-Iran ceasefire, continued drone attacks on Kuwait originating from Iraq suggest long-running tensions could spur violence on their own.

The Short War: Iraqi Militia Attacks on Kuwait During the Iran War

The Basra consulate strike came after a month of Iraqi militia attacks against Kuwait during the Iran conflict. Although it is difficult to disambiguate Iranian and Iraqi militia attacks amid the 1,000+ launched against Kuwait since early March, Kuwait has publicly called on Iraq to stop attacks originating from its territory multiple times since 9 March, and one PMF-aligned militia, Awliya al-Dam, claimed at least 8 operations in Kuwait.

Most militia attacks on Kuwait have been via drone, with Awliya al-Dam claiming such an attack on 13 March. However, the unexplained deaths of two Kuwaiti border guards on 8 March suggest potential clashes along the Kuwait-Iraq border. Regardless, border security with Iraq has been a priority for Kuwaiti leadership during the Iran war, with Interior Minister Fahad al-Sabah (see Featured Personality) touring the northern border posts on 23 March.

The Long War: Iraqi Nationalism and Militia Hostility Toward Kuwait

Though launched in the context of the Iran war, the March and April attacks are also part of a deeper history of anti-Kuwait positioning among pro-Iran militias and Iraqi nationalists. Culminating in Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion, it has been a common Iraqi nationalist trope for decades that Kuwait is an “invented” country that actually belongs to Iraq.

Pro-Iran militias and their allies in the Iraqi government have long drawn on this anti-Kuwait nationalism to mobilize their followers. Most recently, this has taken the form of making maximalist claims in the Iraq-Kuwait maritime border dispute, with the Iraqi government officially claiming Kuwaiti portions of the Khor Abdullah waterway and the Durra offshore gas field on 22 February, six days before the start of the Iran war. During the war, it also included framing Iraqi militias’ own attacks on Iraq’s oil infrastructure as originating from Kuwait.

Short War Going Long?: Post-Iran War Iraqi Militia Threats to Kuwait

Given its deep and distinct history, we expect Iraqi militia antipathy toward Kuwait to persist even if a sustainable settlement to the Iran-Iraq War is reached. In the long term, this will continue to complicate development along the Khor Abdullah, as well as any attempts by Kuwait to develop overland alternative oil export routes via Iraq.

More importantly, the specific history and geography of Iraq-Kuwait tensions mean investors in Kuwait face unique short-term security challenges. Should the US-Iran ceasefire break down, Iraqi militia incursions into northern Kuwait remain a possibility, albeit a remote one, and Iraq’s maritime claims mean Mubarak al-Kabir port on the Khor Abdullah and any infrastructure related to the Durra gas field remain ideologically desirable targets.

Moreover, there is a possibility that Iraqi militia attacks on Kuwait could continue somewhat independently of a regional ceasefire. Although it is difficult to disentangle from post-ceasefire flareups linked to Israeli operations in Lebanon, a 10 April drone attack on Kuwait National Guard positions reported to have come from Iraq could well have been Iraqi militias fighting their own long war rather than Iran’s short one.

While we do not expect such independent activity to last long after a final resolution to the Iran war, continued ambiguity around the conflict’s status elevates the threat of attacks in the short-term, and the fact that Iraqi militias have now openly targeted Kuwait with drones raises the odds of them independently using similar attacks in future disputes.