Guyana: Final Round of ICJ Hearings Show a Confrontational Caracas

What happened: The ICJ held the final round of hearings on the border dispute between Guyana and Venezuela that involves the Essequibo region.

Why it matters: For Guyana, retaining sovereignty over the Essequibo is an existential matter, but it is also notable that the region is resource-rich: A ruling in its favor would boost Guyana’s investment profile.

What happens next: The ICJ is expected to deliver its ruling sometime in 2027. In the meantime, Guyana will continue with the expansion of the oil and gas sector and infrastructure build-out, and the Venezuelan regime will maintain its aggressive posturing and may even seek to leverage its new relationship with the US.

In early May, the ICJ held its final round of oral hearings in the case Guyana brought against Venezuela to validate the 1899 award that fixed the land border between the two countries, but which Venezuela declared null and void in 1962.

The Case

The Guyanese argument revolved around the historical occupation of the Essequibo, Venezuela’s prior acceptance of the 1899 award and Caracas’s lack of legal or historical evidence to support its claim to the territory. The team also called for the ICJ to require Venezuela to revoke all legislation pertaining to annexing the Essequibo.

The Venezuelan side — led by acting President Delcy Rodriguez herself — made it clear that its participation in the proceedings was “without consent.” Its argument centered on the 1966 Geneva agreement — signed by then-British Guiana, the UK and Venezuela to establish a framework for resolving the latter’s claim that the arbitral award was null and void. Caracas claimed the agreement gave it the right to resolve the dispute through direct negotiations.

Notably, in 2018, UN Secretary General António Guterres referred the matter to the ICJ under the dispute-resolution mechanism outlined in the Geneva agreement. The ICJ itself has also ruled that it has jurisdiction to hear and determine the matter.

A Confrontational Caracas

Rodríguez’s address was at times combative, and she rejected the ICJ’s authority to determine the controversy, even while paradoxically continuing to participate in proceedings. She also categorically stated that Venezuela would not recognize any judgment issued by the court, echoing an official statement issued less than 48 hours before the hearings began.

Furthermore, during the first two days of the hearings, two Guyana Defense Force patrol boats came under fire along the Cuyuni River from the Venezuelan side. In our view, this was not a coincidence and was intended to remind Georgetown that no matter the strength of their arguments at the ICJ, Caracas did not intend to give up its claim.

We expect the Venezuelan regime to maintain its policy of intimidation as the court deliberates, with a ruling coming sometime in 2027. This will likely involve rhetoric and occasional aggression along the border. Such actions would be confined to remote border areas, intended to provoke and irritate; we do not anticipate a return to the overtly intrusive strategy of directly threatening offshore operations, given the US oversight. In our view, while this posture may be a matter of principle for the Venezuelan regime, it also reflects a tacit acceptance that they will not prevail at the ICJ.

Although a clear and unambiguous ICJ ruling would be binding according to international law, the Rodriguez regime will also face international pressure to accept the decision, thanks in no small part to Guyanese diplomacy. While Caracas will continue to dispute any judgment against it, this will be confined to beating the nationalistic drums rather than returning to threats of annexation or incursion.

Looking Ahead

Until then, it should be borne in mind that Rodriguez is a lawyer and a seasoned politician, and one fighting for survival in a new, dangerous political environment. As she tries to cut a deal with the US administration, we believe it is not beyond her to leverage her new relationship with the US to Venezuela’s advantage at Guyana's expense, by dangling the prospect of greater access to her country’s vast oil resources in exchange for pressure on Guyana to meet at the negotiating table.

In this respect, she may have more luck with the delineation of the maritime border, the next phase of the border dispute once the land frontier is settled. Indeed, US Ambassador Nicole Theriot has already indicated that the US would be willing to help with negotiations on the maritime border after the ICJ rules, although Georgetown would likely prefer to pursue international arbitration again.

That said, US-Guyana relations are going from strength to strength, with President Irfaan Ali and Finance Minister Ashni Singh most recently making big overtures to senior American government officials and investors. As Guyana continues on its upward trajectory, we expect the US posture towards Guyana to act as a strong deterrent to Venezuelan ambitions and aggression.

This is reassuring for investors eager to capitalize on Ali’s expansionist ambitions. A positive ruling by the ICJ would significantly reduce risk and make Guyana an even more attractive destination for investment, not only offshore but also in the mineral-rich Essequibo, where Venezuelan threats have made some investors wary.